Power rankings are fun because they are subjective; in late September, it is a guess how teams will fare from the outset. Without anything to go on besides last season’s performances, beliefs are written in pencil (not pen) about each player and team. As Voltaire said, “Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position. But certainty is an absurd one.” So here is Intelligent Hockey’s attempt to evaluate each team as currently constituted.
Note: All advanced statistics are from behindthenet.ca and Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com. All conventional team statistics are from NHL.com.
1. Chicago Blackhawks
The Blackhawks stretch the ice better than any team in the NHL. They are an excellent skating, passing, and shooting team. Their pronounced speed and skill overshadow their toughness; when teams try to outmuscle them in the playoffs, Chicago continues to control the puck and generate scoring chances.
Ultimately, this is because the Blackhawks’ defensemen make the correct read in all three zones, enabling the forwards or mobile defensemen to strike from all angles on the attack. It is a strength when a team can advance the puck from the defensive zone to the offensive zone in seamless fashion. Chicago has a terrific transition game, stemming from a defensive group that has cohesion and chemistry with its forwards. Chicago’s skaters understand where the outlet is and what route is the most prudent when exiting the zone and traversing the neutral zone. In the offensive zone, it is hunting season. With the Blackhawks’ elite talent mostly in their prime, their agility and top-tier skill sets make the puck whir.
Their prowess shows up on a micro scale as well. Like their arch nemesis, the Los Angeles Kings, the Blackhawks are a team that is enormously successful at exiting the zone and carrying in the puck on the zone entry and manufacturing a shot from it, per Corey Sznajder’s zone-tracking data.
In consecutive seasons, the Blackhawks have had the NHL’s second best Fenwick Close (Los Angeles having the best). In 2013-14, they had the second best goals per game, third best shots per game, fourth best 5 on 5 goals for/against, and fifth best faceoff win percentage. Duncan Keith won the Norris Trophy, and Jonathan Toews was finalist for the Selke Trophy. Patrick Kane is the best American forward in the NHL.
Heading into this season, there is some uncertainty over which player or players will need to be moved to drop Chicago below the salary cap ceiling. There have been rumors that it could be Patrick Sharp or Nick Leddy, and either player’s departure would be a massive loss for the team.
Sharp tied for fourth in 2013-14 among skaters in GVT with the Ducks’ Hart Trophy finalist Ryan Getzlaf. Nick Leddy is a very good possession defender – although in very sheltered usage — whose merit is demonstrated in Corey S.’s zone-tracking project. (Leddy led the Blackhawks defensemen at five on five in carry-ins on zone entries and did so at a high clip; when juxtaposed with his fellow defensemen, he did phenomenally well when exiting the zone.)
General manager Stan Bowman is as smart as they come and, while both Sharp and Leddy have their flaws, IH believes Bowman will find another way to slip Chicago under the ceiling without moving such important players. Assuming neither moves, this team is stacked and poised to grab back the Stanley Cup.
The Kings played a lot of competitive, hard-fought, extremely fierce hockey, and it took them 26 games to win the Cup. Repeating should be a near- impossible task (although we all know never to count them out). Still, when the Blackhawks are relatively healthy and well rested, they move the puck at a manic pace. Extra rest and more time to heal give Chicago the edge over the competition.
2. St. Louis Blues
The Los Angeles Kings would be second if they had not played an astounding 276 games in the last three years. That is so much hockey and a testament to how good the Kings have been. But the Blues are in second because they are poised to take a much-anticipated leap. They have two young stars just entering their primes – Jaden Schwartz and Vladimir Tarasenko – along with free-agent acquisition Paul Stastny, a two-way center who will help them combat the strong center groups of the other Western Conference powerhouses. Stastny finished 22nd in points per 60 minutes at five on five last season.
Stastny is excellent at retaining or regaining possession along the boards, and there were many instances where his play along the half-wall catalyzed the transition for Nathan MacKinnon or the other star Colorado forwards. Signing him was a major coup for the Blues.
When the Blues were at their best last season, they dictated sequences of play with versatility, depth, and persistence. Whether it was Jay Bouwmeester or Tarasenko leading the zone entry, there was always shrewd support and players positioned to battle for possession. The Blues were a second-, third-, and fourth-effort team and their success was predicated on their forwards and defensemen attacking slivers of space.
St. Louis spreads teams out by having a plethora of capable passers who can recognize and feed the weakside Blues skater cutting to empty ice. It is safe to say that the perimeter is a highly utilized area by the Blues. That mentality of competing for space and seizing it when it’s available will pay dividends this season — the talent has proliferated and the young players continue to positively evolve.
The Blues are already a very strong puck possession team, seventh overall in 2013-14, sixth overall in 2012-13, and tied for first overall in 2011-12 in Fenwick Close. By adding pieces and through internal development, General Manager Doug Armstrong hopes to be able to fill in what has been missing in prior playoff forays. After acquiring Ryan Miller at the trade deadline, St. Louis punted on the chance to re-sign him and instead will turn over goaltending duties to promising youngster Jake Allen. Allen comes in on a cheap contract, and that is germane to the Blues’ current ethos; with so much talent in the forward and defensive groups, it was essential that they have a goaltender for relatively cheap.
Armstrong is betting that overspending on a big-name goaltender is foolish because goaltending is volatile (which it is). The GM’s hope is that Allen will be adequate enough to make the big saves, and that the Blues’ skilled skaters will have enough of an impact that the team can succeed without a series-altering goalie. Frankly, it’s a smart bet, and it enabled Armstrong to construct the current, formidable roster.
Overall, that roster is very talented and deep. Alex Pietrangelo and Bouwmeester are the envy of general managers across the league – giant puck-moving defensemen who can dominant all three zones – while Alexander Steen should submit another prolific season. (He is at the tail end of his prime scoring years but the augmenting of surrounding talent should help.) David Backes, T.J. Oshie, and Patrik Berglund will chip in offensively while asserting their influences in other ways. Kevin Shattenkirk is a very good offensive defenseman who drives play and has a big shot. Combine these actors with Schwartz, Tarasenko, and Stastny, and that is a remarkable assortment of impact skaters.
Losing Vladimir Sobotka is a sneaky big deal, though. He was terrific in the faceoff circle, exhibited poise and playmaking skill with the puck, and was tenacious as hell. Stastny is a better player than Sobotka, but by less than people may think. With Pietrangelo, Tarasenko, and Schwartz another step farther in their star trajectory, they should be lethal this season. It seems like a long time ago, but the Blues almost beat the Blackhawks in the Western Conference quarterfinals last season. This season, if the Blues goaltending is stable, St. Louis could win the Cup.
3. Los Angeles Kings
The team that wouldn’t die. Last season, the Kings had one of the most incredible runs in recent Stanley Cup history, and surviving seven elimination games was a remarkable, unprecedented feat.
Whether paying attention to advanced stats or not, fans of hockey have to appreciate what the Kings have done over the last three seasons. Looking at the Kings’ zone entries and exits in Corey S.’s project are mind-blowing. The Kings control and move the puck better than any team in the NHL while simultaneously defending and disrupting opponents’ attempts to do the same when they try to attack the Kings’ defensive zone. That is quite an accomplishment, and it helps elucidate their back-to-back Fenwick Close regular season titles, their three consecutive Western Conference trips, and two Stanley Cups. When adding puck domination — they always seem to find the proper channels over 200-feet of ice while making it look simple — to their nasty disposition and team size, the result is pretty astounding.
Loa Angeles is bringing back almost the same exact roster from last season’s Cup squad (Willie Mitchell being the most notable departure), and there is reason to believe that they will be the same indefensible force when they are at their best — the team who makes the puck look like a magnet that always finds the perfectly positioned players. This point has been made in this space before, but the Kings are the best team in the league at making plays when they have no separation and their adversaries are hounding them.
From the icing line in the Kings’ own zone to the scoring areas in the opponents’ defensive zone, there is not a team in the NHL that advances the puck in calibrated layers as well as the Kings. The Kings always have a great defense, and they will have a stingy, vaporizing defense this upcoming season, even with Mitchell’s absence. Therefore, the biggest question mark for Los Angeles has to be age.
One of the NHL’s premier gamers and great players, Jeff Carter, will turn 30 this January. Dustin Brown – who had a rough regular season in 2013-14 before exploding in the playoffs – turns 30 in November. Marian Gaborik will be 33 in February, and Conn Smythe winner Justin Williams will be 33 in October. With how much mileage these players have incurred over the past several seasons, when will they experience a noticeable dip in play? Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, and Jake Muzzin are still in their primes and Doughty and Kopitar routinely make plays that only a few guys in the NHL can make. But Los Angeles has major contributors well into the second half of their careers – age will be a factor at some point. It is not a question of if, but when.
4. Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks come into the 2014-15 season with two superstars (Getzlaf and Corey Perry), two high-end young defensemen (Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindhom), and a lot of complementary parts. Last season, those parts coalesced around the brilliance of the aforementioned four, resulting in Anaheim finishing the season first in the Western Conference. (Getzlaf was even Elliotte Friedman’s Hart Trophy pick, and Friedman valiantly defended his choice in his column.)
The Ducks are cognizant of the prolific assortment of top-flight centers in the West, and lost in the last playoffs to the Kings, who have phenomenal depth up the middle. This caused the Ducks to trade for Ryan Kesler this offseason, hoping this will relieve the pressure on Getzlaf.
A lot of people are down on Kesler, and there are certainly reasons for concern given his declining scoring and how his playing style can be punishing to the body, especially for someone 30 years old. But Kesler still adds value on special teams – he led Vancouver in power play and shorthanded time on ice — and plays a physical, difficult-to-oppose game. He does not raise the value of their one-two punch the way Kopitar and Carter do for the Kings — but Kesler is a good addition.
Getzlaf and winger Perry are still in destructor form – they finished first and second in points per 60 minutes last season at five on five — but on the precipice of 30, they needed some established forward help. Acquiring a strong number- two center was a praise-worthy move by GM Bob Murray. Moreover, Kesler’s time in Vancouver had clearly run its course, and we have seen in past seasons what a significant difference a change of scenery can do for a player whose relationship with his team has soured (Carter, Gaborik).
The Ducks also will depend on the young players; what role they can fill on the team and how much responsibility they are ready to assume will dictate how deep this team goes. The Ducks were a pedestrian possession team last season, but if players like Sami Vatanen and Rickard Rakell get increased ice time and roles, the Ducks’ two-way game and breakouts will run smoother. Still, mobility in the defensive group is a worry, and the lack of proven résumés is spread across their forward group. They have had many prospects percolating for multiple seasons now, but it is hard to gauge where they fit in the Ducks’ long-term plans.
Fowler, Lindholm, Vatanen, Ben Lovejoy, and Francois Beauchemin — that is a competent defensive group. After those five, there are a lot of middling, lead-footed defensemen in the back end. Additionally, experience among the core is wanting. Vatanen has 56 career games to his name and Lindholm was a rookie last season; Lovejoy had a career year in his first full campaign with the Ducks and his possession metrics were bad.
If the Ducks’ defensemen do not crater, and rookie goaltender John Gibson is as good as advertised – which IH thinks he will be – then Anaheim has legitimate Cup aspirations. Having two, do-everything stars like Getzlaf and Perry helps shore up weaknesses, and the Ducks’ supporting cast was good enough last season to vault Anaheim into the second round and take a 3-2 lead on the Cup-winning Kings.
The Ducks will be in the mix because they are good at harnessing their feisty talent at forward, and they possess multiple young blueliners and a goaltender who could be a high-upside performer. They aren’t the favorites, but they will be very good.
5. Minnesota Wild
Entering the 2014-15 season, the Wild are a projection quagmire for the hockey community. For instance, they lack the dynamic superstar forwards of the Blackhawks, Kings, and Ducks, or the dominant defensive pairing of the Blues. In fact, whether the Wild have the possibility of a star among their young forwards, like the Blues do with Tarasenko and Schwartz, is a matter of justified debate. While Mikael Granlund and Charlie Coyle have demonstrated tremendous potential, the jury is out on whether they will be able to exhibit it on a consistent basis.
Still, it is not hard to envision the Wild seriously contending. They have six legitimate forwards on their first two lines (Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise, Jason Pominville, Thomas Vanek, Granlund, and Coyle), and some talented players potentially filling in their bottom six (Nino Niederreiter, Jason Zucker, Erik Haula). On defense, they have a stout, wildly affordable, top four with Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon, Marco Scandella, and Jonas Brodin. (The latter three only have a cap hit of $4,585,834!!!!) Brodin has shown a lot of promise in his early career, but after a good-not-great 2013-14 campaign, it is uncertain where he will plateau as a defenseman.
As a whole, the Wild’s big-minute players are solid skaters and strong passers who can identify and attack gaps well and progress the puck strongly, attributes that improve their ability to control possession. The bottom-third Fenwick Close from last season would be more disheartening if the ideology change of more carry-ins on zone entries and other puck-possession tenets had not been documented by Elliotte Friedman in 30 Thoughts and Corey S. in his zone-tracking project. The big question for the skaters is: How does this team want to play?
The Wild of old were a team that tried to grind out every victory and do so through asphyxiating defense. But the Wild have shifted more toward speed and skill, a style of play which complements their burgeoning and established talent (the Ryan Suter stretch pass is one of the most entertaining shift-to-shift plays in hockey). But even with the skill they have at forward and defense, they hardly lit up the scoreboard last season, finishing 24th in goals per game, and 29th in shots per game. Their 5 on 5 goals for/against was eighth in the NHL, but that mostly stemmed from having a strong defense (7th).
The lack of one, defined strength manifested itself in the ROW (regulation and overtime wins) statistic, where 35 ROW placed them in a tie for 16th with New Jersey. Excluding the Kings’ No. 8-seed run to the Cup in 2011-12, an uptick by three-to-five wins in ROW is statistically relevant to whether a team is ready to compete for a Cup. Last season, Minnesota had Bryzgalov swoop in and provide stellar goaltending during the homestretch to help them reach the playoffs. Yet, they finished behind No. 8-seed Dallas and Nashville, a non-postseason team, in ROW. A boost in ROW this season starts with the offense.
This squad had good-but-not-great scoring forwards last season, with Pominville leading the team in goals and points. Pominville is an underrated player, enough so that he did not even receive an invite to the United States Sochi camp. Pominville and second-place scorer Parise were the two leading Wild goal scorers by a comfortable amount, which demonstrates a lack of high-level punch. The third highest goal total on the team after those two – not counting Matt Moulson, who was only with them for 20 games – was Niederreiter with 14 goals. Koivu finished third in points, but only posted 11 goals. If the Wild want to contend, they will need to score more, starting with Granlund and Coyle unlocking their potential.
As Craig Custance detailed in his article, “Four keys for the Minnesota Wild,” this team has a big question mark at goaltender. Niklas Backstrom, Josh Harding, Darcy Kuemper, and Ilya Bryzgalov are all in the mix. The goaltender they choose needs to be adequate enough that he does not sink their chances, and the goaltender with the biggest upside among those four is unquestionably Kuemper. (Health reasons disqualify Harding.) While the Wild goaltending may not be a crippling weakness, it is certainly not a strength; the best way to compensate for this will be by possessing the puck more than the opponent and scoring at a decent rate.
Adding Vanek will help the Wild increase their scoring (he finished 12th in points per 60 minutes at five on five), as will the continued cohesion of the personnel under coach Mike Yeo. But this team finished 20th in Shots for percentage at five on five, in close situations last season. Minnesota’s management has allocated the majority of their capital toward constructing a Cup-worthy forward group and defensive corps. In order to vault themselves into the Cup conversation, their entry-level skaters need to find consistency in their play, and Vanek needs to fit in much better than Moulson did.
Like St. Louis, the Wild’s ascension could come from four lines exhibiting the possibility of scoring, and three defensive pairs who can move the puck effectively. The special teams were bad last season, but Vanek should improve the power play, and if Coyle and Granlund make a leap, they will clearly need to demonstrate value on special teams as well. The Wild are an intriguing team to watch, but it will be the progression of their young players, rather than the goaltending, that will be their salvation if they emerge as a contender.
6. San Jose Sharks
From the way they overload the strong side, to the frenzied way they fire the puck into space and in the direction of net, the Sharks thrive in controlled chaos. But once defenseman Marc-Edouard Vlasic, the bedrock of the Sharks’ 200-foot success, got injured in the Western Conference quarterfinals series against Los Angeles, there was over-pursuit on the puck when there was no support, poor positioning in defensive coverage, and a complete loss of structure. Essentially, the Sharks’ over-assertiveness, which had been a strength for them over the course of the regular season and through the first three games, lost any accountability. Instead of dictating play, San Jose spent too much time chasing.
But damnit, there is still some good to be found here! San Jose finished the regular season third in Fenwick Close. They were in the top six or better in goals per game, goals against, 5 on 5 goals for/against, shots per game, shots against, faceoff win percentage, and penalty kill. This is a big, fast, skilled team that is extremely aggressive on the rush and forecheck. They have a swarm mentality that carries over the full sheet of ice, yet they are still very good in one-on-one battles. They are proficient at shoving their sticks into opposing players’ passing and shooting lanes and, conversely, placing their sticks on the ice so they can deflect shots or receive a quick-hitting pass. This team likes to play north-south, but if individuals are not succeeding in their responsibilities and duties, everything falls apart.
The Sharks fall to sixth in the power rankings because of the bizarre melodrama that ensued after they lost in heartbreaking fashion in the playoffs to Los Angeles. Dan Rosen from NHL.com called the Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau trade rumors “unfounded,” but there were certainly venomous actions and language that suggest San Jose is stuck between a rock and a hard place with their current personnel.
For starters, the Sharks have begun pre-season without captains because they are “starting this year with a clean slate,” according to GM Doug Wilson. He also called the Sharks “a tomorrow team” and there was belief a rebuild would be under way. And then nothing happened. The Sharks saw Dan Boyle, Marty Havlat, and Brad Stuart depart, and re-signed some of their incumbents while making other depth signings. Dismissing the palace intrigue that is going on in the Sharks’ organization would be ignoring the importance of team chemistry, and that would be shortsighted.
Alienating two of the Sharks’ best offensive players – Thornton and Marleau – seems unpropitious to San Jose’s outlook. Both can still play at an extremely high level; Thornton led the NHL in primary assists per 60 minutes at five on five, and Marleau was part of the vaunted Gold-Medal winning Canada Sochi team.
Additionally, goaltending is still an issue with Antti Niemi and Alex Stalock back for an encore. The issue can sometimes boil down to whether the goaltender is good enough to prevent a team from losing the series, but that has not been true in San Jose. This team was electric for much of last season, but the devastating loss to the Kings in the first round seems to have caused them to short-circuit.
7. Dallas Stars
One of the biggest offseason acquisitions a team can make is installing shrewd front-office people to make personnel decisions. The Stars’ hiring of GM Jim Nill falls under this category. With the offseason acquisition of center Jason Spezza (albeit he becomes a UFA at the end of the season), the Stars suddenly have two high-impact centers (Spezza and Tyler Seguin) along with top-flight forward Jamie Benn (third in points per 60 minutes last season at five on five), and an A-grade, under-20 player in Valeri Nichushkin.
With so much young talent in the forward group, Nill’s next task is to establish a contender-worthy defensive group. Alex Goligoski and Trevor Daley are both fine defensemen, but neither is a true No. 1 defenseman, and that player does not appear to be at the roster at the moment. Jordie Benn is a nice story and a competent NHL defender, but he should not be a top-four defenseman on a cup-contending team.
All the same, you can see the vision by Nill. The Stars are rising. Their style of play is as hockey nouveau as it gets. They carry the puck in on zone entries at even strength. Their defensemen are aggressive and activate when they see a gap. When Dallas plays well, they support the puck in layers and whip it around horizontally and vertically with high-low puck advancement at a Cup-contender level. Fundamentally, Dallas does not relinquish possession unless forced.
The Stars finished 9th in Fenwick Close in 2013-14, and what sticks out is not just that Benn and Seguin can make the clean zone entries, but that players like Ryan Garbutt, Antoine Roussel, Erik Cole, and Vernon Fiddler can too. How Nill builds the bottom half of this roster and the defensive corps will go a long way toward Dallas entering the contender conversation.
Current goaltender Kari Lehtonen is signed to healthy money for the next four seasons. He’s not an elite goaltender, but he is likely good enough that if the Stars can continue to assemble a strong forward group and drastically improve their defensive group, Dallas will be a plucky squad in the Western Conference.
8. Nashville Predators
The past formula of the Nashville Predators – score enough by committee to win — is gone. With the departure of longtime head coach Barry Trotz and the arrival of Peter Laviolette, this team will be different. The Predators had an active offseason, signing Derek Roy, Olli Jokinen, Mike Ribeiro, and trading Patric Hornqvist for James Neal. Hornqvist was an important player for the Predators (he led their forwards in scoring last season), but the offseason moves made by GM David Poile place Nashville in good stead. With a reconfigured forward group, a young, mobile defense, and the return of a high-end goaltender, Laviolette should be pushing the tempo and pressing the skaters to attack much more.
The Predators’ first line, as projected by NHL.com, is recently-bought out Ribeiro centering persona non grata Neal and the steady Colin Wilson. This team should increase its scoring, but not so dramatically that it will rank in the top 10 in scoring.
There are two players who could raise the Predators’ offensive ceiling: Filip Forsberg and Calle Jarnkrok. The duo was acquired through separate trades and presents much-needed offensive potential to a franchise whose forward prospects had grown stale. The rest of the forward group (Matt Cullen, Jokinen, Craig Smith, Roy, Gabriel Bourque, Viktor Stalberg, Eric Nystrom, and Paul Gaustad) consist of poorly evaluated misfires by Poile during free agency or at the trade deadline, or players who are mediocre and offer little game-to-game impact. The forward group will be as good as Forsberg and Jarnkrok, the first line, and scoring-by-committee permits. Fortunately, the Predators do have a clear strength on this team: Their defense is awesome.
This is what separates the Predators from the rest of the Western Conference teams who missed this list: They have a big-time, deep, skill area. (Colorado is absent from this list because their depth is ghastly and that will hurt. They have four, incredibly skilled, forwards who will shred the league this year (Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, and Ryan O’Reilly), a good defenseman in Erik Johnson, and a promising young defender in Tyson Barrie. But that is it.)
Nashville’s Shea Weber, Roman Josi, and Seth Jones are currently (or becoming) high-end blueliners, Ryan Ellis is very solid, and Mattias Ekholm will fall in the second, or third, pairing. That’s a very strong group of five defensemen, and if the forward group crystallizes there is reason to believe Nashville could sneak into the top ten for Fenwick Close after finishing tied for 13th last season. Laviolette is getting a chance to mold his new team in training camp for the first time since 2001. (On his last two teams, he was hired mid-season.)
The fulcrum of this team is the defensive corps, and Laviolette will likely want them dictating the pace, pinching and moving the puck whenever they can. If Nashville can exit the zone smoothly and come through the neutral zone with four skaters on the rush, it will give them wider gaps to attack and their entries will be easier. Additionally, when they are in the offensive zone, Weber and the gifted stable of blue liners have hard shots and good distributing skills, which will offer more room down low when opponents are forced to honor the shot and playmaking skills from the point.
The return of Pekka Rinne will unquestionably be a huge advantage as he is one of the game’s best goaltenders when healthy. With the Predators primed to be more aggressive in their style of play on breakouts and in the neutral zone, along with how their forwards work in concert with the defense, they will need Rinne playing at a high caliber to fend off enemy salvos.
Nashville is taking a much-needed pivot after a long time spent rooted in one system of ideas. The team’s ideology was constricting, but not retrograde. Part of the problem was that the Predators only had four 30-goal scorers in their history, the lowest amount in the NHL since 1998-99, so they weren’t exactly stacked with offensive talent. Still, a less conservative system should provide the top defensemen with autonomy and the skilled forwards with creative freedom. It seems axiomatic, but providing the best players untrammeled decision making, and not confining them to a system, should be a refreshing change in Nashville. We’ll see how it goes.
