All NHL teams have now completed at least as many games as they played altogether in last year’s lockout-shortened season. But the playoffs are months away, and an Olympic battle royale is scrunched in-between the regular season and playoffs. With a lot more hockey on the horizon, here are Intelligent Hockey’s picks for the Seven Best in the Western Conference.
Note: All statistics used are from ExtraSkater.com and NHL.com.
Tier 1: The Cup Contenders
1. Chicago Blackhawks
The Chicago Blackhawks are still the team to beat because they won the President’s Trophy last season en route to storming through the playoffs to grab the Cup. They are the team to beat because they have ten players going to Sochi – tied for most being sent from one team – yet, they still may have had the most egregious snub in Canadian defenseman Brent Seabrook. The Blackhawks occupy the throne as the reigning champs, and despite a mid-season lull, their body of work suggests they should be the favorite.
Chicago‘s defensemen are very adept at puck retrieval and their forwards understand where to position themselves on the ice so that their transition game is seamless. For the Blackhawks, nothing is slow developing; theirs is a kinetic mindset all the time. What is especially salient about Chicago is that all of their defensemen can skate the puck out of the zone if the forwards are squeezed. Smooth-skating, smart decision-making, and composure are crucial attributes for defensemen, and all the players in this team’s defensive battalion possess them.
Offensively, the Blackhawks are one the best teams at spacing and reinforcing around the puck-carrier. They spread you out, but they also close in very quickly when the puck is loose around the paint. They have a cadre of skaters who are masterful at charging the net with the puck and creating pressure.
When Chicago collects giveaways, they can strike quickly and put the game out of reach. The Blackhawks will use their explosion off the puck to make them lethal on the give-and-go; they seem to create more scoring chances off the give-and-go than any team in the NHL.
On a micro level, the Blackhawks are first or second in Corsi and Fenwick regardless of how you rescale the situational settings on ExtraSkater.com. They are first in goals per game, third in five-on-five goals for/against, and have a Hart Trophy, Norris Trophy, and two Selke Trophy candidates. The Blackhawks are really good – they are replete with speed, puck skills, and two-way effort — and beating them four times in the playoffs is going to be a draining task.
Keep in mind, the core skaters on this team have stayed intact for around a half-decade; the Blackhawks have that advanced continuity that most teams can only dream about. They also stay remarkably injury-free. This season, eleven skaters have played in all 52 games. If anyone can knock off the defending champs, it will need to be a member of this first tier.
2. Anaheim Ducks
Something the Ducks have in common with the Blackhawks and the rest of this tier is their versatility. They can play at a break-neck pace, but they can also cycle and grind with a hard forecheck. This adaptability allows them to punish opposing defensemen with bone-crunching hits or with turn-the-corner speed.
Their most-used line combination per leftwinglock.com is the Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Dustin Penner integration. Those are three massive men who can shoot, pass, and hit; taking the puck and exiting the zone against them is as onerous as it sounds. But really, any permutation that involves Getzlaf and Perry will succeed. These two are playing out of their minds this season, and are unstoppable together.
But give credit to Anaheim’s defense as well. Ben Lovejoy has raised his game a few levels, and young bloods Hampus Lindholm and Sami Vatanen have bolstered the team’s defensive prowess. Their defensemen are mobile, but also skilled at protecting their net. The Ducks are underrated in how well they seal the edge – it is a common defensive stratagem to defend the middle and work your way out from there, and Anaheim does this masterfully – with a full-scale commitment from all five skaters.
Of the four teams in the West who are in Tier 1 and classified as legitimate Cup contenders, the Ducks have been arguably the best at taking away the shooting and passing lanes with their active sticks and willingness to sacrifice their body to block a shot. Their rotations and switches in the defensive zone are very good, and when the Ducks are at their best they play on-a-string defense.
The Ducks’ possession statistics are good but not elite, but that is somewhat offset by the Ducks possessing not one but two components that the authors of the 2013-14 Hockey Prospectus loved: the Ducks’ third line and the recently-named-to-Sweden’s-Sochi-team Jakob Silfverberg.
The Ducks’ third line — Cogliano-Koivu-Winnik — is the second most-used line on the team, per leftwinglock.com. These players have been great together and even when separated. Silfverberg is still finding his role in the Ducks’ very, very deep lineup, but he did miss some time this year with a broken hand. Overall, Silfverberg works well with what the Ducks try to do as a team.
When looking at why Anaheim’s possession statistics are not among the aristocracy, it is important to see which names are dragging them down. The name that jumps out is Kyle Palmieri. For those who have watched the Ducks’ games this year, Palmieri is still a developing talent, especially on the defensive side of the puck. But holy smokes, he is going to be a really, really good player. He is tenacious, has above-average stickhandling, understands leverage on and off the puck, and is a willing and skilled passer. His Corsi and Fenwick are in the basement, but this guy has sure-fire top-six forward written all over him. If you are the Ducks, you deal with that lower possession stat.
The Ducks are virtually unbeatable at home and have exceptional depth at all positions. They are superb at finding gaps in enemy defenses and exploiting them. If an opposing defenseman loses Getzlaf or Perry for a second, they will torch him. (Hockey Prospectus just ranked Getzlaf and Perry as No. 2 and No. 3 on their player rankings.).
The Ducks’ forwards and defensemen can create space for themselves, and those in possession of the puck can carry it long enough so that those off the puck get to soft spots. Anaheim is second in the NHL in five-on-five goals for/against. Top to bottom, this team is built for a long playoff run, barring a serious injury.
3.Los Angeles Kings
There are a few pivotal things to know about the Kings before any complaints are filed. They are neck-in-neck with being the best puck possession team in the NHL. When the Kings lead going into the third period, their winning percentage is 1.000.
Additionally, the present Kings team is very likely not going to be the exact roster when the playoffs are here. There have been loud rumors that general manager Dean Lombardi wants to add another scorer, and if they get a Mike Cammalleri, Matt Moulson, or Thomas Vanek to chip in some more offense, that might be enough.
The Kings are one of the best teams in the NHL at locking down on opponents when they have a lead, and making a stop when needed. Not surprisingly, they are first in the NHL in goals against. They do not make many mistakes, and their strategy of firing as many pucks on net as possible – with traffic obstructing the enemy goaltender’s vision – ebbs and flows with their puck luck. On the other end, the Kings are great at allowing their own goalie to see pucks journeying towards net — they are 29th in the NHL in shots blocked. This tactic usually puts them on the good side of the ledger.
Interestingly, the Kings are so positionally rigid that they can sometimes look static because their players are honoring their individual assignments. Ultimately, they are a top-flight face-off team with a ton of skill. They play a heavy forecheck – they play within a clear scheme, but are by no means conservative; this is an aggressive squad — and are strong on their puck support. When they lose the puck, their tracking is first-rate.
Yet, while the Kings are very good at establishing territorial advantage, they are struggling to find returns from that positional plus. They have their ace goaltender back, and Quick looked nearly unbeatable in the last two playoffs.
Coach Darryl Sutter has Los Angeles playing a structured offensive game that employs as many indirect passes and shots as just about any team in the NHL. The Kings have significant difference-makers in their personnel, dynamic skaters who can change the tempo of a game on a single shift, and their offense and defense is the type that thrives in the postseason. Depth, skill, strength – the Kings check the box on all of the above, and come playoff time they will be ready to battle.
4. San Jose Sharks
The San Jose Sharks attack in layers. They will overload the strong side with forwards, often giving them a numbers advantage along the boards. The loss of Logan Couture hurts, and Tomas Hertl’s injury is disheartening, but this team is maintaining its winning ways. Up front, Joe Thornton is an elite distributor, Patrick Marleau has speed on the edge and a proclivity for producing goal opportunities, Brent Burns is overpowering and cagey at the same time, and Joe Pavelski has been on fire this season.
The Sharks’ primary scorers are dynamic, and they have enough punch in their bottom six that they can still resemble an elite team. This is a club that drives the net really well, and understands the spacing that a charging forward provides; the Sharks are very good at exploiting opponents who fall vulnerable on the counterattack.
Defensively, the Sharks’ corps is one of the best in the league. Marc-Edouard Vlasic will be in Sochi representing Canada, and his defensive partner Justin Braun was mentioned as a possibility for the United States team. Dan Boyle was part of the gold-medal effort for Canada in Vancouver, and he is still a very effective offensive defenseman despite advancing age. Brad Stuart, Jason Demers, Matt Irwin, and Scott Hannan round out a deep, and productive back end that is as engaged offensively as any defensive grouping in the league. San Jose’s defenders pinch frequently, but do so smartly – rarely are they burned for it.
This team is masterful at funneling shots towards the net and maintaining consistent, constant pressure. They lead the league in shots per game – 35.2 per contest is 1.7 higher than the second place team – by being able to win the one-on-one battles in the corners and in front of the net that allow them that extra shot.
The Sharks are in the upper class for puck possession – their Corsi and Fenwick fair well in all scenarios – which is what makes their goaltending edge so formidable. Of this top tier, the Kings’ Quick has played the best in the postseason, but the Sharks’ Antti Niemi delivers the strongest play on a consistent basis.
From an X’s and O’s standpoint, IH has a favorite set play the Sharks like to run. In the offensive zone, right winger Brent Burns will line up along the hash marks on the left side of the circle. After a won faceoff, Burns will retreat to the top of the point. The puck will be moved back to one of the defensive pairs and they will shuttle the puck across the blue line to Burns, who will one-time it towards the net – without any obstruction because this gives the Sharks three players high at the point. Down low, Pavelski and Thornton will be occupying the paint and both are skilled enough to attack and meet the puck for the deflection (instead of waiting for the puck to reach them).
This play is run efficiently and effectively. Burns loves to blast the puck and the numbers advantage the Sharks enjoy in the high portion of the zone allows that. Pavelski and Thornton have good hands and are adept around the net despite being outnumbered.
How Do You Beat These Top Four Teams?
Enough with the praise — how do you beat the top tier teams? Game plans exist, but it is difficult. You want to try to limit turnovers in the neutral zone as much as possible. An opponent needs to be vigilant of these teams’ top-flight forwards and defensemen by trying to have at least one player attentive to their movements at all times.
Having success will mean disrupting their zone entries and transitioning as quickly as possible without conceding the puck. All of these teams win consistently because they are versatile and deep, but limiting their high-end skaters’ space and eliminating scoring chances off the rush — as best possible — is the best tactic.
A team determined to upset them will need their goaltender to play extremely well, and attempting to match the elite teams in puck possession is also crucial. When you are in the offensive zone, winning races to the puck and having your five-men units in motion is essential. These four teams, like any team, are susceptible to lapses in coverage and blown assignments that lead to gaps. When an opponent gets a scoring chance, converting, or at least getting that puck on net, is paramount. Make their goaltenders at least work for the save.
This all sounds kind of like stuff you need to beat any team, not just the best teams, but with these four it is especially important to stifle and disturb the Kanes and Keiths, Kopitars and Doughtys, Getzlafs and Perrys, and Thorntons and Pavelskis.
Interfering with the cogs of these teams leads to flashes of disjointed play. They are beatable, but it will be awfully tough to beat them four games out of seven, come playoff time.
Tier 2: Lone Survivor
5. St. Louis Blues
Against Tier 1, the Blues have two regulation wins, two shootouts wins – which amount to a coin flip – and seven losses. So why exactly should they be trusted? They have looked overmatched in many of those defeats, and while they field a roster littered with plus players, those primary pieces just seem unable to manufacture offense against Western nobility.
St. Louis has a great work ethic, and the movement of its skaters is beautiful and unique, like a starling murmuration.
The Blues have many very good forwards and defensemen who pursue the puck efficiently – over-pursuit can lead to an odd-man rush the other way – with a man on the puck often able to snatch possession from the enemy skater.
They are second in the NHL in goals per game and fourth in goals against. Their power play and penalty kill are both top ten. Alex Pietrangelo and Jay Bouwmeester will be making up one of Canada’s defensive pairings in Sochi, and U.S. Olympian Kevin Shattenkirk has been mostly impressive. At even-strength, the Blues are tough to take the puck from and even tougher to score against.
The Blues are stingy in their own zone, and use their stick, body, and diligent footwork to siphon the puck from their opponents and push the puck up the ice. In the offensive zone, it is an endless cycle. St. Louis is good at establishing a net front presence, and uses speed and size to produce a series of goal chances. But this team just does not have enough – at least at this moment.
Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Alexander Steen are all talented players, but the Blues lack a top-flight forward who can pull a Bryan Mills by using his very particular set of skills to make himself a nightmare for the opposing team.
If the Blues fall behind by a goal or two, they just do not have the horses to catch up. When St. Louis is trailing after the first period, their winning percentage falls in the middle of the pack with the rest of the NHL. The inverse is that they are second in the NHL in win percentage when they score first, but nevertheless, the inability to recover when they fall behind is a red flag.
The pack of four elites are all better at winning when trailing after the first frame – with the Ducks and Sharks at number one and number two respectively, and the Blackhawks and Kings both in the top eleven.
Still, the Blues should not be wholly discounted. Steen has a penetrating shot and is a savvy playmaker, and this season has been a career year. What some people may not know is that he is not exactly new on the scene. He is 29, and has been an overlooked player for some time. He has found his role on the Blues and become a force, and he’s playing the best that he’s ever played, given a boost early on by an unsustainable shooting percentage.
Schwartz and Tarasenko are still early in their development, but both have shown they can play top-six roles. Still, when juxtaposed with the four teams above, the Tier 1 teams possess players who are gangbusters on offense – yes, even the Kings. The Blues are a very good team with a formidable power play and an awesome blue line, but they have gotten their lunch money taken from them by the conference powers in the postseason and in this current regular season.
If they add another piece like the Kings seem poised to do, maybe that puts them in the conversation. But the Blues are already at their spending ceiling, so that seems unlikely. The Kings win with power, two-way forward acumen, and asphyxiating defense. The Blues could fit this mold; they rarely over-commit on defense and their grit on the offensive end wins them a lot of games. But Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak are question marks that leave St. Louis’ Cup hopes grainy. For Halak, the 2010 playoffs where he was so brilliant seem like a long time ago.
General Manager Doug Armstrong is said to believe in internal improvement, and with this group, maybe getting as many cracks at the Cup as possible is the best path. The Blues are not as resilient as their competitors, and while they are easy to like because they keep it simple and are sound in the fundamentals, taking the next step may only come with patience and the continued maturation of Tarasenko and Schwartz.
Tier 3: The Fringe
6. Colorado Avalanche
The seeds for success are there. Matt Duchene is a playmaker who has a Patrick Kane-ceiling – an explosive skater who uses his edges in an all-world way and finds seams on his passes where there is no room. Ryan O’Reilly is a big, power forward who seems to be one of those guys the puck always finds. Nathan MacKinnon actually might be the forward who has the highest ceiling; the fact that he is still so effective while fellow rookie Valeri Nichushkin has hit the rookie wall speaks volumes about where this guy will be in a few years.
Gabriel Landeskog is the consummate captain, a young winger who has evolved into an excellent two-way forward. Landeskog’s work ethic and command of the puck allow him to be high-impact in all three zones. Semyon Varlamov has been superb. P.A. Parenteau is an assist guru and Jamie McGinn has been a hardnosed, agitating point producer. John Mitchell is a jack-of-all-skills forward who has been an important contributor. Paul Stastny is going to play for the United States in Sochi and handles tough defensive assignments. That is a lot of quality players.
Colorado has been a really good team this season and the numbers reflect that. The Avalanche are fifth in the NHL in regulation and overtime wins, and are inside the top eight for goals per game and five-on-five goals for/against. Their power play is 10th in the league and their penalty kill is 15th — other than being mediocre on faceoffs, this team’s strengths are impressive.
However, Colorado’s defense is patchwork and Varlamov, Stastny, O’Reilly, McGinn, and Mitchell are UFAs and RFAs at the end of the season. How the Avalanche — a team with a ton of speed and a bright future — address these contracts will dictate when this team becomes a contender. Doling out too much money will leave their delicate defensive situation vulnerable. If they are frugal, they could let an important top nine or starting goaltender leave. Moreover, some key defensive players — Andre Benoit, Tyson Barrie, and Cory Sarich — are UFAs and RFAs at the season’s end as well.
Still, for Avalanche fans it is hard not to feel optimistic about the future. With Duchene, MacKinnon, and Landeskog, Colorado has a devastating nucleus, one that will dominate opposing defenses for many years to come.
7. Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks are interesting. Under new coach John Tortorella, they are often pugilistic, but the mauling physicality that results in a lot of penalties is not that costly because they have such an awesome penalty kill.
Also, the Sedin twins are two of the most fascinating players to watch on a daily basis. While many of the superstar players on these teams are described as fast or quick, the Sedins are neither. But they compensate for their lack of vertical speed by being maestros of the lateral game. Their passing along the horizontal axis of the oval-shaped ice is mesmerizing, and few players are better at navigating and cutting into the right spots.
They both have extraordinary hockey sense, so they know where their teammates and the enemy skaters are at all times. If their back is facing the middle of the ice, the Sedins can thread a perfect pass through the logjam in front to a slashing defenseman — or brother — who just appeared in the slot.
Their game also meshes well when they play with Ryan Kesler, who is in many ways their polar opposite, style-wise. Kesler is a north-south power forward who pushes ahead and makes his best plays around, and in front of, the goal line. Kesler also possesses a cannon for a shot, so withdrawing from the blue paint into the high slot allows him to angle his stick at a slight incline so that when the pass comes, he can strike it at the net with as much power as possible.
Speaking of power, the Canucks’ defensive corps is full of hard shots that they unleash from the point. Vancouver’s back end is an important part of the Canucks’ offense, and their ability to find the shooting lanes and passing lanes often dictates how many points the Canucks glean from an individual contest.
Ultimately, the Canucks, who are slumping hard, are good but not great. They are a slight step above the remaining teams in the Western Conference because the Sedins and Kesler lines can cobble together enough scoring that you at least have to respect them. The team’s Fenwick and Corsi are around the top ten in the NHL in all settings. Secondary scoring is still a problem, but their defense and goaltending is good enough that Vancouver remains a dangerous team.
