Intelligent Hockey

The Metropolitan is the gloomy division in what otherwise has been a scintillating NHL season so far. But sometimes a team rises from out of the darkness. Columbus’s rise is not as sharp as Bitcoin’s, but the Blue Jackets are slowly morphing into one of the Eastern Conference’s most promising teams.

When discussing The Blue Jackets’ future, all conversations should start with Ryan Murray. This 20-year-old defenseman, who was the second overall pick in 2012 NHL Entry Draft, missed most of last season with a shoulder injury that required surgery. But this season, as a rookie, he has showcased the full skillset of an ace defender.

Murray’s skills are different than those of Eastern Conference blue line monoliths like Erik Karlsson and P.K. Subban, but no less impactful. Murray’s superlative skills include how smoothly he retrieves the puck and makes the outlet pass to leave the zone, his composure with the puck in high-traffic areas and crunch-time situations, and his ability to utilize leverage and balance in one-on-one battles.

In fact, his leverage and balance need their own paragraph because they are downright fantastic. In recent contests, Murray has won individual battles with Jaromir Jagr and Jordan Staal deep in the Blue Jackets’ zone. Strength on puck possession is arguably both of those players’ best skills these days, and Murray was the clear victor.

The kid is cool like Paul Newman, and can handle a counterattack with the aplomb of a ten-year veteran. Murray’s instincts for leading with his stick and keeping his twig active are very good building blocks for a defenseman, and his hockey intellect for when to jump in to intercept a pass, or push the rush, is first-rate for his age.

Murray is comfortable on both the power play and penalty kill, and his slap shot, quarterbacking skills, and selflessness in blocking shots are strong assets. He only stands to get better at both sides of special teams, and it is extremely rare for someone so young to be so comfortable in making his reads and understanding his defensive assignments. As you might have guessed, Murray’s advanced statistics are robust.

But the Blue Jackets are not just a team with a future defensive anchor and a bunch of flotsam. The pieces assembled are more formidable than they may look on paper. Four of the forwards in Columbus’ top six – Nathan Horton, Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Johansen, and Cam Atkinson – are genuine top-six players on a good playoff team, while Artem Anisimov and Nick Foligno are very capable top-nine forwards. That depth down the middle –Dubinsky, Johansen, and Anisimov – is pretty darn good, with Johansen’s continuing development remaining the most significant question going forward.

Here is what we know about the former fourth overall pick from the 2010 draft : Johansen has the size, foot speed, and stick skills to be a high-end center in this league, but there is still some work to be done. At 21, he has displayed flashes of the upside that he could provide when he hits his peak. Johansen leads the Blue Jackets in goals and points, and for such a young player has demonstrated proficiency in the faceoff circle with a 52.4 win percentage. He even has that turn-the-corner speed that allows him to gain the edge when moving outside to inside.

However, Johansen is not influential every shift, and he’s unpolished in his own zone. Sometimes, he will try to leak out when the Blue Jackets are hemmed in their end, and as a center he needs to show the same dedication and effort towards his defense as he does towards generating scoring chances. Also, the release on his shot could be quicker; a slow release allows an opposing defenseman to use his stick or body to block the shot attempt.

Still, while Johansen does not yet have the éclat of Evgeni Malkin, or the callous effectiveness of an Anze Kopitar – centers with comparable size and position – what he does have are good offensive skills and a big body, attributes that allow him to access prime real estate on the ice.

And Blue Jackets head coach Todd Richards is hardly coddling Johansen, which is impressive in its own right. He gets very difficult zone starts, and his quality of competition is first on the Blue Jackets. IH would like to see a more consistent compete level on a shift-to-shift basis, but the seed is there and he is sprouting. Now it is more a question of what he will look like when he blooms.

What also should be mentioned is that he is not definitively the No. 1 center for Columbus (he is in a 1A/1B situation with Brandon Dubinsky). Dubinsky has been his physical, combative self this year, and is playing some great hockey. What Dubinsky does very well applies to several players in the team’s top nine – they are very good at absorbing hits and still moving the puck forward. They have some big bodies, but they push north undeterred. This point should not be undervalued. Big bodies who grind on the forecheck and can possess the puck and fight through contact are a requisite in Los Angeles, and by all standards the Kings are pretty good.

Watching the Blue Jackets, and looking at their cap sheet, engenders optimism, not horror, which is something that separates them from their Metropolitan Division counterparts. What distinguishes the Blue Jackets from the Carolina Hurricanes – who also have a young star forward and a very talented young defenseman – is that the three highest paid skaters on the Hurricanes are Alexander Semin and brothers Eric and Jordan Staal, with the trio soaking up a collective cap hit of $21.25 million. Not only have those three been pedestrian by their standards this season, but all three were omitted by their countries during the team selection for Sochi. Semin’s exclusion is especially noteworthy because Columbus — who has the most Russian players of any team in the NHL — will be sending all four of its Russian players to the Olympics. Ouch.

Back to Columbus. Last season’s Marian Gaborik trade made sense at the time. Trying to trade for a former 40-goal scorer who may have been hampered by his coach is a gamble worth taking. It just did not pay off because Gaborik is in the Dany Heatley stage of his career. Assuming the Blue Jackets allow Gaborik to leave after his contract expires, while contemplating using their second compliance buyout on R.J. Umberger, the Blue Jackets will be left with a lot of important cap room, which they will need to lock down their core.

This coming summer and the following one, Dubinsky, Foligno, Atkinson, Johansen, Sergei Bobrovsky, Nikita Nikitin, and Dalton Prout all become UFAs or RFAs. These are players Columbus will unequivocally want to retain, and dealing with the rest of the expiring players is up to general manager Jarmo Kekalainen’s discretion. Handing Murray a long-term extension after this season may be advisable, too, because, assuming he stays healthy, he projects to be the best defenseman in the division.

After the ghastly free agency spending spree this past summer – some of the notable lucrative misfires have been Stephen Weiss, David Clarkson, and Ryane Clowe – the Nathan Horton debut and fit on the Blue Jackets is looking solid. Horton brings veteran savvy to a young team, as well as the winning pedigree that teaches young players how much work goes into being a professional.

Horton is getting paid a lot of money for the long term, but he also seems really excited to be a part of the Blue Jackets’ organization. And after the Rick Nash and Jeff Carter debacles, getting a very good winger who wants to a part of what they are building does count. If Horton can stay healthy, the ripple effect on impressionable young talents like Atkinson, Johansen, and Murray can only be positive.

So here is the upshot: the Blue Jackets still have some zero-impact players in their lineup, and some of their defensemen move like they have cement in their skates, but what makes the Blue Jackets so appealing is that they are young, talented, and not marred with debilitating contracts. Horton’s health could change that declaration, but contracts for players like James Wisniewski and Fedor Tyutin look less unsavory as the salary cap rises.

If the Blue Jackets can extend Bobrovsky, they will have high-caliber goaltending in net. Right winger Atkinson is the real deal, and was a genuine steal in the sixth round after many misfires on high first-round picks over the years. His penchant for goal scoring could have him hit the 30-goal mark in the future.

Johansen is evolving into a stout No. 1 center and Murray a dominant No. 1 defenseman, and the rest of the gaps in the roster are starting to be filled organically, or by players who can chip in on short-term contracts (e.g., Jack Skille and Blake Comeau). It also cannot be forgotten how much of a boon it has been for Columbus to switch out of the Western Conference to the Eastern.

In the Eastern Conference, Boston and Pittsburgh are the top tier while the rest of the 14 teams scrape and claw for a shot in the postseason, where anything can happen. The Blue Jackets have valuable players in important roles, and the maturation and development of their young guns gives them increasingly good odds of one day rising above the morass.