The restrictive rookie pay scale means that sometimes mega-talents are employed at a huge bargain during their first contract. If a player proves skillful and adaptive enough to succeed in the NHL in his formative years, two options emerge when he reaches the second contract: big money with term, or a bridge contract – a show-me extension to prove a player’s worth before teams proffer him the top-shelf contract.
The following are players on entry-level contracts who have shown a lot of promise in their early careers and face important upcoming seasons, albeit for a variety of reasons. Intelligent Hockey assesses where they are in their development, and projects where they could be going.
Note: All advanced statistics used are from behindthenet.ca.
Mikael Granlund
Mikael Granlund finished on a high note last season, taking a much anticipated step forward and playing like one of Minnesota’s best players down the stretch and in the playoffs. At five on five during the regular season, Granlund finished with the second best points per 60 minutes and primary assists per 60 minutes on the Wild. In the playoffs, he tied for the most goals and scored the third most points.
Granlund is fearless, and demonstrates a ton of skill: he supports the puck well, attacks with speed, and even has a little Parise in him in terms of the way he battles for pucks. Granlund can slither and play through contact, but also knows when to recede and try to plant himself in a soft spot. He has very good anticipation, as well as good instincts for how to position himself in all three zones. He always identifies the best way to progress the puck toward the opposing net, changing tack when he sees fit. This makes him extremely difficult to account for because he veers on and off the puck. His unflagging commitment to helping the Wild win ensures that he will at least plateau as a good NHL player, barring health. But potentially, he could be a star.
Aside from concussion concerns, Granlund can sometimes hang on to the puck too long. This was documented in Corey Sznajder’s “All Three Zones Tracking Project.” Granlund can achieve the carry-in, but his success rate for shots generated from those carry-ins is worse than that of his top-six peers. This shows up on tape; he can wait too long looking for a passing lane and turn it over or make a poor decision. However, the bylaws of puck possession state that a player should not relinquish the puck, even if it results in a turnover. Granlund exemplifies the living proof of a player who believes he can beat any player on the ice and navigate the puck through a maze of players. In principle this is a positive, but circumstantially it can be a negative.
Effort is essential to being a two-way player, and Granlund provides that. He can sometimes lose his positioning and make a lazy play, but he is still young and learning. The center has poise and confidence with the puck and only stands to get better. Minnesota is very fortunate to have him.
Charlie Coyle
Charlie Coyle’s north-south game presents an interesting contrast to the zig-zaggy, finesse approach of Granlund. Like Granlund, Coyle has a very good skill level. He is very adept at the zone entry, and understands the timing of when to feed a teammate and when to blast a shot. He is developing a two-way game, and his work in the defensive zone was very strong in the playoffs.
Although Coyle did not have robust boxcar statistics in 2013-14, he can shoot, pass, and skate at a high level, and this season would appear to augur a true breakout for the former Boston University Terrier forward. A smart player, he keeps it simple, understanding which avenues are best to advance the puck. He is getting better at using his power and agility to move with the puck from non-scoring areas to scoring areas. How he performs this season will be fascinating.
Brandon Saad
Brandon Saad is equipped with an arsenal of offensive and defensive acumen, but the challenge for him is to continue to find consistency. Saad is very good at manufacturing scoring chances and suppressing them defensively, although this oversimplifies his nuanced game. He is very strong on the puck and punctures the defensive coverage well because of his good vision. For instance, when he loses space on the perimeter he can make the cross-ice pass to the weak side, which often opens up a scoring chance. Expectedly, he has productive possession numbers.
The Blackhawks’ leaders in points per 60 minutes at five on five this season were Patrick Sharp (2.36), Jonathan Toews (2.35), Patrick Kane (2.33), Marian Hossa (2.10), and Brandon Saad (1.91). When switching the metric to primary assists per 60 minutes, Saad finishes second to Kane. He is on the precipice, and soon turning 22, he is around his prime scoring years. He is in the Toews-Kane-Sharp-Hossa bracket, and poised to see his numbers surge this season.
Saad is extremely intelligent in how he tracks the puck and anticipates, which allows him to shore up gaps when teams are trying to make the entries into the offensive zone. In all three zones, he utilizes leverage well when battling one-on-one, and will be a huge weapon for Chicago this season.
Jaden Schwartz
He is a shifty, dynamic forward who will continue to play in all situations and has a sixth sense for extracting the puck from the opponent. The true sign of a great player is one who begins and ends his own sequences, and Schwartz does this to a very high degree.
The former Colorado College forward can carry the puck in on a zone entry and find a passing lane just before it opens, or he can beat the defender and wire a shot. Versatility to make plays through contact is what the best forwards possess, and Schwartz can generate scoring chances in the dirty areas. Inversely, he is very dangerous with room.
In 2013-14 at five on five, Schwartz finished third on St. Louis in points per 60 minutes, goals per 60 minutes, primary assists per 60 minutes, and assists per 60 minutes. His possession metrics were sensational.
The Blues already have the cycle and forecheck game in their repertoire, and they have needed players who are premier puck-handlers. Fortunately for them, Schwartz and Vladimir Tarasenko fit that billing. Schwartz always seems to be around the puck and is a gifted puck-handler and playmaker. When he receives passes or gains possession, he always does it cleanly.
In his own zone, Schwartz makes the right reads to help the puck exit the zone, or he carries it out himself. A subtle skill is his ability to create space with sharp stops and starts when controlling the puck. Like Tarasenko, Schwartz beats players one-on-one and has a good shot, especially for his size. He can track an opponent down, quell a carry-in attempt with a takeaway, and support the puck well.
Vladimir Tarasenko
While Jaden Schwartz had a terrific regular season for the Blues, Vladimir Tarasenko’s was even better. He is a dynamic forward who can bend defenses in compromising ways, opening up the middle to shoot, or a seam for a quick-hitting pass. He has a quick release on his shot and disguises the angle well. Like Schwartz, Tarasenko is superb with his stick. He always has his stick on the ice, ready for a pass or shot, and is excellent at eluding opponents.
Tarasenko can gobble up a loose puck, change direction, weave through coverage, beat the defenseman, and unleash a shot — all in one sequence. At five on five, he led the Blues in points per 60 minutes and primary assists per 60 minutes, and was second in goals per 60 minutes. In fact, his points per 60 minutes metric places him just outside the top ten in the NHL. He does not just drive possession — he commands play and scores abundantly.
The former 16th overall pick from 2010 is very good at skating to spots where the puck carrier can pass it to him through a seam. Knowing the routes to scoring chances is an extremely valuable attribute, and Tarasenko’s instincts are excellent. He has the strength to win the battle for the loose puck if the first shot attempt does not go in. Defensively, he is tenacious and makes good decisions on and off the puck.
Jacob Trouba
Stuck on a team that seems to be perpetually mediocre, Jacob Trouba has manifested himself as a beacon of hope for Winnipeg Jets fans. Bestowed with size, strength, grace, and confidence, the former ninth overall pick from 2012 appears to be a home-run selection, poised to be a future No. 1 defenseman.
Trouba offers ideal 200-foot play: he fires off crisp outlet passes in the defensive zone, races up the ice with the puck when he sees room so that he can place undue pressure on the defense, and has a cannon for a shot that he can beat goaltenders with from a distance. He also can pounce on space when he is left uncovered. Trouba’s 10 goals placed him in a tie for 18th among defensemen in goals.
Defensively, he is a beast, unafraid to maul the opponents with his power and force. He is gifted at sealing gaps and eliminating time and space, and then can push the puck up the ice. He can deliver bone-crunching hits and positions himself well in all three zones. The Jets are in the tougher Western Conference now, and making the playoffs this season will hinge on how much more of a leap Trouba can make. With Ondrej Pavelec still in goal, they will need a big year from Trouba.
Hampus Lindholm
In Hampus Lindholm’s rookie season with the Anaheim Ducks, he played so well that he embedded himself in their top-four defensive corps, where he excelled. The former first-round pick has excellent poise with the puck and drives play; when the defense encircles him, he advances it well to his teammates. He makes a very good first pass, and is a skilled playmaker who buoyed the Ducks’ transition game. At five on five, Lindholm finished second among defensemen in primary assists per 60 minutes, and 9th in the NHL in points per 60 minutes among defensemen.
For the Ducks to become a true Stanley Cup contender, they need to improve their possession metrics. In order to do that, they need to be better in their own zone. Last season, Lindholm was superb at exiting the zone and finding the right passing channels. Without him, the Ducks would have been significantly worse at controlling the puck. Lindholm can skate and pass exceptionally, but his shot needs to get stronger. If he can add more power to his shot, he will be a top-notch defenseman — assuming he continues his strong play from last season.
Defensively, Lindholm is good at cleanly disrupting the opposing player from the puck without getting a penalty, but sometimes he gets overpowered by stronger forwards. He needs to be a little bit more combative on and off the puck to go along with his strong stick work. Some young defensemen struggle to meet expectations in their sophomore seasons after having strong debuts, but a puck-moving defenseman who distributes well and excels because of his decision-making like Lindholm is well positioned to maintain his high level of play. Additionally, it helps that he is mentored by Scott Neidermayer, who lauded Lindholm for his timing and ability to do the little things in games.
Jonas Brodin
Despite his wiry build, Jonas Brodin possesses great balance against bigger, more forceful players who try to batter him on the forecheck and cycle or plow through him on the rush. He has strong defensive ability, which allows him to win battles and lead the breakout.
Yet, there are fair questions about whether he is a first- or second-pair defenseman. His strengths are his poise under pressure, his ability to make his reads and distribute, and his offensive instincts on and off the puck in the offensive zone. His biggest weakness is his passivity. While he has mobility, too many times he punts on the chance to find a cutting player who can achieve the carry-in on the zone entry, and instead dumps the puck in. Minnesota used to be a team that grinded, but that team is gone. The current Wild push the pace and use their speed and skill to beat their opponent.
Brodin is still very young, and when he dumps the puck in it is because he wants to make the “safe” play if he does not see a passing or skating lane. But Minnesota has espoused an unalloyed possession game, and that demands that Brodin be much more assertive. He is a pretty smooth puck-mover so he is capable of augmenting his attacking game. He also has some facility distributing in the offensive zone and can shoot fine, but it is important that he model himself more after Jared Spurgeon, who is always a dual-threat to carry in the puck on the zone entry or distribute it to a forward who can achieve the territorial advantage.
Minnesota has three of the 17 first-contract players in this article, which illustrates they have done a good job at stocking high-quality wares. Well done, Wild.
Nathan MacKinnon
By the time the playoffs had arrived, it was hard to put into words how well Nathan MacKinnon had played in his inaugural season at 18 years of age. And then he Supernovaed — MacKinnon had 10 points in seven playoff games against a very good Minnesota Wild defense, and four of those came in the waning minutes of regulation or overtime.
MacKinnon’s skating, strength on the puck, and edge work that allowed him to poleax the Minnesota defensive group were performed at an elite level. And that’s not hyperbolic – when he is fed the puck in transition, there are only a few players who are as, or more, dangerous: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Steven Stamkos when healthy. Several times, Wild defensemen lost balance because they were trying to skate backwards fast enough to keep pace with MacKinnon. And this was the NHL playoffs! He is a scheme-wrecker, and his making a Stamkos-like leap in his offensive production next season would not be shocking.
Tyler Toffoli
It seems like Tyler Toffoli has been around for longer than he has; mainly, this is because he has been a memorable contributor to the Los Angeles Kings’ last two playoff runs.
At his best, Toffoli sprays shots from all spots on the ice, supporting the puck in all three zones, and slipping into scoring areas. He has very good hands and makes calculated decisions in all areas of the ice. Despite a lack of conspicuous speed, he will always be able to score because he is smart and positions himself tremendously well. He had the third-best even-strength goals per 60 minutes for the Kings, and his even-strength points per 60 minutes trailed only Kopitar for best on the team. It seems very plausible that he could register 25 goals and 30 assists this season.
Evgeny Kuznetsov
The former 26th overall pick from 2010 is loaded with offensive talent, but in 17 games in his first NHL season he experienced ups and downs, registering three goals and six assists. He has NHL-level shooting, passing, and skating ability, but the Capitals are not short on scoring. The Capitals are a team that has a few rousing offensive talents, yet still cannot keep the puck out of their net or control the puck consistently. Expectedly, Kuznetsov’s possession numbers were bad, although he is likely adjusting to the North American play after multiple KHL seasons. He will become an RFA next offseason, so it is important for him to establish himself as a player who can contribute positively for Washington. Kuznetsov possesses the aptitude to be a potent scorer in the NHL, but from his brief debut, he showed that he needs to focus more on the details, like the large swaths of ice other than the offensive zone.
Dougie Hamilton
Matthew Coller touched on this in his Summer Skate piece about Boston on ESPN Insider: The Dougie Hamilton era is here. The gigantic rearguard selected by Boston as one of the first-round picks from the Phil Kessel trade, Hamilton has emerged as an offensively capable defenseman who skates extremely well for his size and understands Boston’s three-zone strategy. With Hamilton as Zdeno Chara’s defensive partner, the Bruins’ defense crystallized last season. Hamilton demonstrated a nice first pass, the skating prowess to attack the opposing defense off the rush and hurt it when Boston fed him on the cycle, and sound defensive positioning. Like Chara, he uses his size well to swallow opponents attempting the zone entry, and has the reach to poke the puck away. As Coller noted, Hamilton had a better Corsi away from Chara than when he was paired with him. At 37, Chara will see his prime end soon — at least most humans do. Incredibly, Boston is developing a facsimile to fill his role when he is gone. Hamilton will soon be the No. 1 defenseman for this powerhouse, maybe as soon as this season.
Valeri Nichushkin
A medley of power, quickness, and grace – for his size it is extraordinary how fluidly he carries the puck — Valeri Nichuskin plays like an emerging star with a profound skill set. The No. 10 overall pick from the 2013 NHL Draft, Nichushkin has soft hands and can explode into scoring areas with the puck. With his loping stride, he travels up and down the ice very quickly, and must always be accounted for in the offensive zone. He has outstanding reach and can fight through contact, but he also has the edge work to eschew collapsing defenders. He also has good offensive anticipation, and gets where he needs to be for rebound opportunities or loose pucks.
Nichushkin needs to improve his decision-making, and that correlates with his defensive zone play. He was still in his teenage years last season, and at times it was clear he was conserving himself for offense, although that can be said of most blue-chip forward teenage rookies. Still, with Nichushkin, Dallas has another forward who can lead the rush and carry in the puck; when Nichushkin strikes with speed, he is very difficult to stop. It is very promising that with top-six forward responsibilities, he finished in the black for Corsi.
Tomas Hertl
When Tomas Hertl returned from his knee injury, the hockey world was once again reminded of how much potential the young forward has. Hertl can score off the cycle and rush; he has deceptive speed, soft hands, and protects the puck well. Hertl has very good offensive instincts and carries himself like a much more seasoned veteran, likely due to his man-sized build and skating stride. He possesses strength on and off the puck, and while his scoring capability is well documented, he is a willing and capable passer. A player who has the size and strength to get into scoring areas, and the puck skills to convert, is invaluable, and Hertl, like his teammate Patrick Marleau, owns those attributes (although Marleau is much faster).
Whether San Jose is in a rebuild is a polarizing question, and what they are doing as an organization seems peculiar, but as long as they keep cultivating young talent on offense and defense they will keep winning. Hertl will not be able to maintain his robust 1.59 goals per 60 minutes, but he should continue to build off of a superlative rookie season.
Matt Nieto
Matt Nieto is an example of another young talented skater that San Jose has done a very good job developing. The California native pressures well and has finishing ability. The Sharks love to flood the strong side, and when Nieto gets the puck in a tight space, he sees the ice well and generally makes a prudent decision.
Inside the attacking zone, Nieto positions himself well to convert on a scoring opportunity or to set up one. He supports the puck well in the neutral zone and defensive zone, and was a good possession player in his rookie season.
San Jose is trying to trend younger, and with the youth movement they are emphasizing speed and puck skills. Nieto has both. He can win races to the puck and play very well off the puck – he seems to know when to speed up or slow down according to the offensive sequence.
Defensively, Nieto understands San Jose’s overload schemes and is fine at buttressing the zone exit. He should be a very interesting player going forward because he showed a lot of upside in his rookie season. If he can build on that, he becomes a very valuable young asset.
Ryan Murray
When Ryan Murray is healthy, he markedly raises the level of play by the Columbus Blue Jackets’ defensive group. Even though his regular-season WOWY numbers without James Wisniewski are well below 50, he presents a puck-moving, distributing option that the Blue Jackets simply do not have without him. His poise with the puck is prolific, and he makes very good decisions on his reads. Jack Johnson does both of those skills to an extent for Columbus, but Murray’s patience and anticipation in all three zones allow him to execute fluid zone exits and clean entries into the offensive zone.
Murray has fine, but not incredible, recovery speed, and with more seasoning he should learn how to close the angle on forwards in transition more effectively. He bespeaks top-flight-defender upside with his brilliant understanding of the position and his ability to push the tempo and command play. If he continues to improve his footwork and stick positioning, he should emerge as a clear defensive anchor and No. 1 blueliner.
Seth Jones
When Seth Jones fell to No. 4 in the 2013 NHL Draft, he was considered a steal by the Nashville Predators. Even with how well Nathan MacKinnon and Aleksander Barkov played, and with the looming meteor of Jonathan Drouin, the Predators are perfectly content with their selection. As Craig Custance cited in his article on future franchise players, both Trouba and Jones play similar power games. But the equanimity Jones demonstrated in his rookie year, when paired with Shea Weber among others, was extraordinary. (Jones actually had a better Corsi when not playing with Weber.)
Jones brandishes a punishing defensive game and deft footwork, and he makes strong first passes on breakouts. Offensively, he is gifted, posting six goals and 19 assists. His first NHL goal was ridiculous, and it is very plausible the young defender could take a major leap in year two as he renovates and upgrades his craft.
