And just like that, the conference semifinals have reached the elimination stage. With each match-up in Game 6 or Game 7, the ability for teams to expand on what has succeeded and modify what has not worked well will determine who progresses to the conference finals.
Note: All advanced statistics used are from ExtraSkater.com
Ducks-Kings
There was one component that loomed as a fatal flaw for the Anaheim Ducks heading into this series: goaltending. The Kings would have Jonathan Quick, the United States’ starter in Sochi, who is labeled a “money goaltender.” But all Anaheim had was a goaltending predicament. Plus, there was the faint suggestion that the Ducks would hand the reins to 20-year-old John Gibson, their wunderkind, but inexperienced, goaltender who has been tabbed as their future ever since he was drafted. Well, Gibson did get the start in Game 4, and in the process changed the complexion of the series.
Gibson has been fantastic, saving 67 of 70 shots attempted in two games. In the abbreviated life that is a seven-game series, Anaheim is now the Kings’ equal in goaltending.
But the lack of a goaltending edge is only one of the problems that has led to the Kings losing three straight after taking a 2-0 series lead. One of the core problems is their propensity to fall behind – the Kings have not led since Game 2. By falling behind by one or more goals over the past three games, they have been forced to exert maximum effort to come from behind. This problem existed when they faced San Jose in the first round as well, but the Kings were able to dictate the game when their backs were against the wall and survive, winning the last four contests. This time around, they are going the opposite direction.
The Ducks have the slight edge in Fenwick Close, 51 percent versus 49 percent, achieved by high-end performances by Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. That pair has been extremely dangerous on the power play, where Anaheim has scored on five of their 16 chances.
Cam Fowler, the Ducks’ 22-year-old defensive anchor, had an up-and-down first round against Dallas, but he has been very good in the second round. When Fowler is at his most effective, he is zipping up and down the ice, whipping stretch passes and pushing the pace. Something that has been noticeably encouraging with Fowler is that, when he makes a mistake, he has remedies. When he gets caught on a pinch, he shows good recovery speed getting back. When he concedes a turnover in the neutral zone on an ambitious cross-ice pass, he will disrupt the puck possessor and get the puck back.
But the deciding factor for why Anaheim may win this series after the Kings won the first two games is depth. The Ducks’ 3-12 forwards have been better than the Kings’ depth forwards. Also, the Ducks have a plethora of reserve forwards; they can survive injuries to one or two of their players and implement a more than capable replacement. And the Anaheim defensive corps, which was deemed a weakness by many, has stayed afloat.
Anaheim has gotten goals from forwards Nick Bonino, Devante Smith-Pelly, Jakob Slifverberg, Teemu Selanne, Patrick Maroon, and Matt Beleskey in this series. Their two superstars, Getzlaf and Perry, are both scoring and facilitating. Both have the ability to be the fulcrum of the offense from up high or down low.
In contrast, Marian Gaborik and Alec Martinez have made up the majority of the Kings’ scoring in this series (seven of Los Angeles’ eleven goals). Jeff Carter has one goal and Anze Kopitar has none, albeit both have contributed assists. Depth players Mike Richards, Trevor Lewis, and Dwight King have chipped in one each, but Dustin Brown, Justin Williams, and Jarrett Stoll are conspicuously absent from the score sheet in this series. Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli have not provided enough offense. With time waning in Game 5, Kings’ coach Darryl Sutter rode Carter, Gaborik, and Kopitar because those were the three most effective players in last night’s game.
The season-ending injury to Ducks’ defenseman Stephane Robidas in the first round appeared to give the Kings an opening to attack; after all, Robidas was a top-four defenseman for them before the injury. But the Kings have yet to exploit this advantage on a consistent basis. While the Kings have dominated even strength play – 119 shots for versus 99 against – their own injuries on their back end have hurt their breakouts and affected their transition game. Los Angeles has not dictated play unless the Ducks are in a protective shell to guard their lead and are vulnerable for attack.
Anaheim has a very good forecheck, and when they dig in they can strike quickly. Moreover, there have been too many turnovers by Los Angeles in their own zone and the neutral zone that have allowed the Ducks to procure quality scoring chances. Drew Doughty has been by far the best defenseman on the Kings – he has averaged nearly 29 minute per game over the last two contests — and if they are going to advance to the next round, they will need their top performers carrying them. The much-heralded supporting cast has been underwhelming so far.
Blackhawks-Wild
There were questions leading into the series about whether the Wild had enough firepower and goaltending to compete with the Blackhawks. Thus far, the answer is yes. Minnesota has looked like the faster team in spurts, and they have had impressive success on the cycle – which can be linked to some of the Wild’s feisty top-six forwards. Chicago is not a physical team, and Minnesota has exploited that shortcoming, using their speed and finesse to come off the boards to get to the middle.
When the teams are five on five during these playoffs, Mikko Koivu and Jason Pominville have helped the Wild control 59 and 58.8 percent of the shot attempts, respectively. Zach Parise has been one of the best players of these playoffs, and in Hockey Prospectus’ most recent player rankings he came out fourth overall. Mikael Granlund and Charlie Coyle continue to be explosive players who can take the puck to the net. The Wild’s best forwards are playing well.
Minnesota’s forwards have been winning the races to the puck and are playing strong on the puck beneath the circles. On the other side of the rink, the Wild has done a fairly good job at limiting the Blackhawks’ opportunities off the rush and cycle. This has been a very good series for the Minnesota Wild defensive group, especially after a rough Game 1 and Game 2. Even Ilya Bryzgalov has been fine, brandishing the slightly higher even-strength save percentage (.916 versus Crawford’s .914).
This has translated on the numbers side, to an extent. When adjusting for all situations and even strength, the Wild have the edge in Fenwick percentage. Controlling the puck is a lot of the battle, and the Wild have been able to hurt Chicago with their passing and speed.
But dammit, that is why the Blackhawks are a potential modern dynasty in the making. Despite this site’s love of analyzing the nuances, sometimes the team with the best players will win the series because their talents prevails. Chicago has not looked cohesive from start to finish for five games, but Brent Seabrook knows that if he can find his outlet to exit the zone, that puck can get to Patrick Kane in space and then he can make magic.
Chicago has gotten hemmed in their zone, conceded giveaways in their own zone and neutral zone, and lost their coverage in the defensive zone. Offensively, they have failed to consistently exert dominance with their typical tape-to-tape passing, whirring, cutting, accelerating, and swarming of the net.
The Blackhawks have the better Fenwick Close, which sort of parallels the theme that Chicago has been just good enough when the game is tight. Corey Crawford has made some big saves in key moments, and even when Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp, and Marian Hossa are struggling, they are still very good. The Blackhawks have been lethal on the power play in this series, navigating levels of defensive coverage and reversing the flow of the puck to get to open spots around the net. (Although Saad’s Game 2 goal was moments after the power play expired, it still derived from their power play execution).
The Wild have taken a different approach against the Blackhawks. Minnesota has tried to beat them with their finesse and quickness, employing the stretch pass to expose gaps and using their closing speed to force a lot of turnovers in costly areas of the ice. The best way to combat the Blackhawks’ scoring is by winning the territorial battle, and the Wild have mostly succeeded in that area.
Penguins-Rangers
While there is some juicy history with the Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Rangers, their match-ups do not have quite the historical baggage of the Montreal-Boston rivalry. Still, there is tons at stake here, and what happens in the present will likely have a seismic effect on the future.
For Pittsburgh, if they lose to a flawed New York team after possessing a commanding 3-1 series lead, there are a lot of whispers about complete organizational overhaul. Ostensibly, Marc-Andre Fleury and James Neal would be excommunicated, and coach Dan Bylsma and maybe even general manager Ray Shero would be subject to removal.
For New York, their two-game win streak has temporarily eased the heat over underperformers Rick Nash and Brad Richards. Nash, if he stumbles in Game 7, would continue his memorable goalless playoffs, possibly becoming persona non grata in the Big Apple. The New York media can eat you alive, and that could lead to a future that likely does not involve New York. (No-trade clauses can get waived if the player feels it is not in his best interests to stay.)
As for Richards, he had his chance to salvage his inevitable compliance buyout, but his transformation into a complementary piece who provides little to no effort on defense is not worthy of his pay grade (he seems to have entered the Vincent Lecavalier stage of his career). Nash and Richards seem the most likely dominos to fall, but there could be others.
After an uneven first game back from injury, Chris Kreider has been a high-impact player, amplifying the Rangers speed on the rush and ability to wield a strident forecheck. The Rangers are scoring off the cycle again, while also exiting the zone swiftly on breakouts. Their neutral zone play is much improved.
The Rangers’ defense is activating well while simultaneously thwarting the Penguins’ top-six forwards. Ryan McDonagh is playing much better than he was in the first three games, especially his ability to connect on stretch passes and exploit the Penguins’ poor gap control.
Pittsburgh has been a top-heavy squad all season long with a dominant power play, and while the Penguins received important supplementary scoring in the Columbus series, Bylsma re-jiggered the lineup against New York so that his best forwards are clustered together on Pittsburgh’s first two lines. Now the Penguins are sputtering at even strength and with the man advantage.
It also helps when the Rangers are facing Fleury, who is delivering another abysmal performance. His even-strength save percentage is .913, which is passable, but when adjusted for five-on-five in close games, his save percentage drops to .883 (versus Henrik Lundqvist’s sparkling .947). Depending on one’s definition of a soft goal, there have been a half dozen or more stoppable goals that squeaked by him in this series, and for the Penguins, that must be deflating.
The Penguins have lost the Fenwick Close battle the last two contests – although the Penguins hold the series edge in Fenwick Close percentage and shots for – which can be attributed to Pittsburgh losing the individual battles along the wall and below the goal lines while also failing on their first passes out of the zone. After looking fatigued for three consecutive losses, the Rangers are playing like the more energetic team.
Bruins-Canadiens
In a development that seemed unthinkable by many around the league, the consensus Eastern Conference Cup choice is on the brink of elimination. With some of these series, the data and match-ups from the season proved to be just noise – not relevant to a playoff atmosphere. But not this series. Montreal has employed the same strategies that helped them frustrate Boston during the season in order to even up this series.
In all situations, even strength, and five-on-five close, the Bruins have dominated the Canadiens. The Bruins were the vastly superior team in Fenwick Close over the regular season, and they have flexed their muscles in controlling possession of the puck and firing shots at the net.
But to no avail! Carey Price has been a maestro, a goaltending genius who is posting a performance worth writing a ballad about. The cage that he protects has been an affectionate companion, and has helped him ward off an outpouring of scoring chances.
And this is what the Canadiens do! They survive the onslaught from Boston by blocking shots and attempting to clog the passing lanes. And when the opening presents itself, they utilize their speed and passing to galvanize their highly effective transition game.
By keeping the game close, and repelling the cyclical swarm of Bruins’ bodies crashing the net, Montreal is able to keep their window open. P. K. Subban has been a difference-maker, pushing the puck north and demanding attention in the offensive zone – opening up the seam passes. If he sees space, he can unleash his rocket of a shot that rises and dips into the corners of the net.
Montreal has had great success on special teams. Their power play has been dynamic, and their ability to parry the Bruins’ barrage of shots when down a man has been commendable.
Will all this last? The numbers strongly suggest that it won’t. The Canadiens have been markedly worse at even strength and are getting badly outshot; they are skating by on special teams and opportunistic scoring, and Price has been standing on his head. The Montreal reliance on the transition game and counterattacks is remarkable because Boston knows it is coming, and it still works! Yet, the Bruins have the better forward group and defensive group (while the goaltending is a draw).
But Montreal has been dismissed all season long. Their weaknesses are well dissected and understood – and yet they keep winning. And the last two games have been closely contested on the Fenwick Close front: Montreal won Game 5 with 54.5 percent and Boston won Game 6 at 52.4 percent. Boston should win, but that does not mean they will win. Anything could happen in a Game 7, and Montreal is a well-coached team that is confident operating within their system. They will be ready to battle. What an incredible second round.
