The Pacific is an excellent division, teeming with viable Stanley Cup finalists. What distinguishes the teams in the Pacific from those in the other three NHL divisions is that they tend to be bigger, faster, and deeper. The NHL is not the NBA, and the league’s best player – Sidney Crosby – has not won a Stanley Cup since 2009, his only one. The teams that survive the playoff journey to 16 wins? Those are the ones that have plentiful skill and depth. Injuries are inevitable – unless you are the 2012 Los Angeles Kings – so having the right players to sprinkle into your lineup and keep things fluid is essential.
Anaheim Ducks: 17-6-3
The plusses for Anaheim are many. Anaheim has a collection of talented forwards, a stable of good defensemen, and four NHL-caliber goaltenders. Their savvy general manager, Bob Murray, has kept one eye on the future and one eye on the present, and the Ducks’ growth from last year is palpable. Top-flight forwards Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry make the right play at the crucial moment and in all situations – even strength and special teams. Their skillsets are varied enough that a sprinkling of hitting, passing, and shooting qualifies them as a forward pair who could take the Ducks to that next level in the postseason.
Anaheim plays tenaciously on the forecheck, and the poise and playmaking among an eclectic age group makes the Ducks a formidable offense to suppress. Opponents struggle to transition from their own zone, and Anaheim can siphon the puck into quick strikes. The Ducks are also a team that makes their biggest impact at even-strength (they are fourth in the NHL at even-strength goals for/against), and they are 25th on the power play, and 24th on the penalty kill.
Perhaps the most encouraging sign is that the Ducks can play multiple styles. They can push the pace with their offense, ramping up the tempo, or they can slow it down and let their talented defensemen (Cam Fowler, Francois Beauchemin, and Hampus Lindholm) find the shooting lanes.
Sometimes Anaheim will cycle the puck below the goal line and spread the defense out and look for seams; if gaps are closed, they let their big bodies win the battles in the corners and pick up loose rebounds on high-volume shooting. Anaheim is also good on breakouts and provides good puck support across the three zones.
In goal, Anaheim has Viktor Fasth and Jonas Hiller, and also saw some good work from Frederik Andersen when he was called to duty. John Gibson of the 2011 NHL Draft is projected to be the best of all of them, so Anaheim’s plethora of capable goaltenders puts them in a position of strength.
The best way to attack the Ducks is to try to mitigate the impact of Getzlaf and Perry as best as possible and make the rest of the squad beat you. If an opponent can control the puck, Anaheim will expose gaps in its defensive zone coverage and can be susceptible to forceful counterattacks. But that is true with nearly all NHL teams.
Bryan Allen has been a pleasant surprise, but he is subject to spurts of play where he can look very limited. Beauchemin was a quality blueliner last season, but he has had his pitfalls this season as well. Overall, the defensive corps is fine — not robust, but fine. It certainly qualifies as a spot worth watching for possible hiccups going forward.
The upshot is that there’s a lot to like about the Ducks. They are 9-0-1 at home, and their Corsi for and Fenwick for percentage in close games (at even-strength) is 13th and 9th respectively. Dustin Penner and the throng of ancillary forwards have looked very good, and Fowler looks to be a future No. 1 defenseman.
Coach Bruce Boudreau, a well-known line tinkerer, will find the right buttons to push on this squad as the season wears on. The Ducks’ PDO is the third highest in the NHL and set for some regression, but Anaheim’s depth is the backbone of this team — before Peter Holland got traded, the Ducks had nineteen (!) players who had scored at least one goal this season — and it positions them as a strong contender with potential to make some noise in the postseason.
San Jose Sharks: 15-3-5
The Sharks have enviable depth up the middle (Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, and Joe Thornton) and are a fast team. After torching the league at the beginning of the season, the Sharks dipped – a five-game losing streak from October 30th to November 10th – before rebalancing to win five of their last six. General Manager Doug Wilson famously recalibrated his roster at the trade deadline to make his team faster, and that definitely happened, but one of the reasons the Sharks are good is because of their centers. Like Couture.
Couture is deceptively fast, has quick release, and seems always to be around the puck. His anticipation is outstanding, allowing him to collect a ton of scoring chances and prevent a lot as well. Couture is a responsible defensive player who forces takeaways and is always ready to receive the puck. The best players in the NHL stretch the defense, and Couture moves the puck through heady passing and acute hockey intelligence. Pavelski is a decisive player who aggressively attacks the net. He plays strong on the puck, and has a cannon shot. Pavelski has the highest faceoff percentage of the three centers, but all are 53 percent or above.
Thornton is the 34-year-old passing savant who still skates very well and plays the game proficiently. He could slip a pass through two standing quarters facing each other, and he can carry the puck on an entry and gain the zone. Thornton also provides an intangible quality on a team with young players in big roles. (Thornton, Dan Boyle, and Patrick Marleau represent the old guard who help instill in younger players what it means to come prepared and have an unrelenting work ethic).
Thornton, Pavelski, and Couture are one, two, and four on the Sharks in points (Marleau, who is also a nominal center, is tied for second with Couture), and these pivots are good not just at finding space but creating space with their soft hands and poise with the puck. The centers have helped catalyze the Sharks to the top five in the NHL in Fenwick and Corsi for percentage, and distribute the puck effectively.
Having the puck a lot allows you to take more shots: the Sharks are first in the NHL in shots per game and third in goals per game. And as good as their offense has been, their defense at even-strength has been nearly equal.
Marc-Edouard Vlasic looks to be a likely selection for team Canada’s defense in Sochi, and his partner, Justin Braun, is arousing some consideration from team USA. They are the Sharks’ shutdown pair, and they play responsibly — not forcing the play when there is not an appetizing option. Boyle, also a team Canada blue line possibility, remains an impact, puck-moving defenseman, and blueliner Jason Demers has been sterling as well.
San Jose plays aggressively – from making the cross-ice first pass to leave the defensive zone, to the cross-ice one-timer pass after faking a shot in the offensive zone. At their best, the Sharks are explosive and blitz an opponent with rubber on net. At their worst, they are sloppy and exploitable. A team that stays disciplined and has a mastery of the details can cushion the San Jose haymakers and push back. (Los Angeles comes to mind, and the Sharks have one overtime loss versus the Crowns this season. There was also last season’s riveting seven-game playoff series with these two teams.)
There has been some speculation regarding the wisdom of the Chicago Blackhawks paying Corey Crawford so much money, but one can muse that the Blackhawks’ reluctance to allow him to depart is due to the success Sharks’ goaltender Antti Niemi has had since he departed the Blackhawks after their 2010 Cup win.
Niemi is a very, very good goalie, one who is likely to win a Vezina one day. The Fin has a strong lower body and moves post to post masterfully. He is strong at absorbing shots and has above-average rebound control. His fundamentals are technically sound, and he consistently stays square to the shooter.
Beyond their stars in the middle, the Sharks’ rookie Tomas Hertl has been a revelation, along with a big contribution from the powerful skater and hard-hitter, Tommy Wingels. Tyler Kennedy is fleet-of-foot and does yeoman’s work, and Brent Burn is dark matter – a mysterious entity with a strong influence on the relative universe. When he is healthy, his impact is enormous. From the goal line to the opposing circles, the Sharks are stocked with talent and their units are kinetic. No parts ever stop being in motion. Their feet are always moving.
The Sharks players put themselves in position where they seem to have the puck (and are poised to shoot it or pass it) or are positioned to retake it. But will that speed and skill be mitigated in the postseason against teams with the bruising force and sandpaper of the Kings or St. Louis Blues? The Sharks are smart, skilled, and can counterattack as well as anyone, and their goaltender always keeps them competitive. The Sharks special teams are middle-of-the-road, but with how much aptitude there is on this team it figures to get better. San Jose will be a worthy candidate for Western representation in the Cup finals come postseason.
Phoenix Coyotes: 14-5-4
Historically, the Coyotes under coach Dave Tippett have been a rigidly structured team that wins by defense and procuring value from players who became unwanted by their previous teams. They did not score a lot, but their defense and goaltending were good and they won by making less mistakes and playing patiently.
Oops! Phoenix has now gone against the Tippett tenets of coaching, and is fourth in goals per game, sports a top ten power play unit, and their penalty kill is among the worst. The Coyotes have fallen behind early in games, but they have shown persistence and poise, and made some heroic comebacks. They are a very good faceoff team, but their Fenwick and Corsi for percentages are in the bottom half. Goaltender Mike Smith has played well, and their two star defensemen are the engine of this team.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Keith Yandle are at the hub of everything this team wants to do, and their tremendous ability allows them to play terrific hockey. On the power play, the Coyotes can play a hybrid of the Split and Overload because both Yandle and Ekman-Larsson have cannon slapshots and nimble passing accuracy. Also, they are both gifted with superb capability to utilize deception and misdirection. The pair can cloak the puck with the blade before whipping a wrister through traffic or freezing the defense.
A Machiavellian move both men employ is faking the shot or using a sleight of foot in a direction, or even in a shoulder dip, before reversing in the other direction. Other defensemen may attempt this, but few do it as craftily and smoothly as these two. Ekman-Larsson and Yandle are more than unpredictable and tricky — they are dynamic. They can dictate the pace of a game, and their expertise at finding the shooting angles allows the Phoenix offense to get rebounds or deflections. Mike Ribeiro has been a perfect fit alongside the two on the power play.
The forwards for the Coyotes are not big names but they are strong in the basics. The Coyotes consistently make tape-to-tape passes, and overall are a very good passing team. Antoine Vermette can kill penalties and win faceoffs – no NHL player has more faceoff wins this season. Radim Vrbata is a big, strong winger with a hard shot. Martin Hanzal is big, dangerous around the scoring areas, and has good hands.
Shane Doan continues to be an effective player on puck pursuit, and can sort out the clutter in front of the net on both sides of the ice. Defenseman Derek Morris has a rocket from the blue line, and Rob Klinkhammer brings energy and a willingness to go into the dirty areas — good things seem to happen when he is parked near the net. The Coyotes are built around every player knowing and executing his assignments each and every shift, and if a player slips up, he is culpable.
Phoenix is a playoff team, and possibly a Stanley Cup team with the right health luck, but they need Ekman-Larsson and Yandle to continue playing incredible hockey. Ekman-Larsson and Ryan Suter are 1a. and 1b. for the Norris Trophy in IH’s view, and in a vacuum Ekman-Larsson is one of the three best defensemen in the NHL.
Los Angeles Kings: 15-6-3
For all the finesse the Sharks display, for how high-octane their five-men units can look and how haphazard they can appear when out of sync, the Los Angeles Kings are at the other end of the spectrum. They do not light up the scoreboard, but they also do not make a lot of mistakes. Their special teams are good – upper half of the league – but not great. The beauty of the Kings is that they do not beat themselves. You as the opponent need to beat them, and that is a Herculean task because the Kings are super talented.
Los Angeles plays a forecheck that is so aggressively combative it borders on abusive. Their forwards are smart, they are big, and they are powerful. Many times the Kings shoot from the outside not to beat the goaltender, but to successively get a better opportunity on the ensuing rebound. And once the Kings pin an opponent in the offensive zone and start their cycle, it is very difficult to take the puck back.
The Kings play what would be, in basketball, a half court offense. They shift positions, employ set plays (on faceoffs and after an entry), and abide by the Sutter dictum, which is controlling the puck and shooting from varied angles. The ensuing save or spillover scramble for the puck allows for a better opportunity for a goal if the initial shot does not go through. With forwards like Anze Kopitar and Jeff Carter, the Kings can run the fast break when given the option. Sometimes they will drop the puck back to the second layer on the rush for a slash and kick, generally to a poised Slava Voynov, Drew Doughty, or Jake Muzzin for a one-timer.
Just as no team plays strictly firewagon, run-and-gun hockey for 60 minutes, the Kings generally play ground and pound hockey, but occasionally will take advantage of a rush up the ice. No team passes up an odd-man rush or a quick counter. Admittedly, the Islanders are the closest to the exception, a team that plays its entire contest trading scoring chances.
The Kings’ blue line is a mix of bear-sized maulers and two-way game-breakers. This allows them the flexibility to strike with layers. It is never just Kopitar on the offensive zone entry because Dustin Brown is slithering into a space and Justin Williams is burrowed in a crevice in the slot.
The same is true with Mike Richards, Jeff Carter (when healthy), and Dwight King. Richards and Carter have supernatural chemistry, and Carter specifically has an insane skillset. When Carter is healthy, few forwards are better, and he and Richards get better when it counts.
The Kings are second in Corsi and Fenwick for percentage; they dominate the puck and they do not give it back. Their offense is built around shots in traffic and mechanisms (such as a pick to free the trigger man) to free their skill players to empty areas where they can shoot the puck. The Kings’ pounding style enables them to be a perennially tough team in third periods; opposing defensemen are worn out by the last stanza after doing a heck of a lot of puck retrieving and defensive zone exits. If the Kings have a lead, they clamp down. The Kings’ forwards play excellent defense, they are extremely adept at anticipating where passes and shots are being released or directed, and then disrupting them with efficiency.
The Kings’ deliberate pace sounds as if it would not be as exciting to watch as the wide open game other teams play, but IH argues otherwise. The Kings’ success is based upon their players winning individual battles consistently, a good barometer of skill and work ethic. A finesse game illuminates players’ flashiest talents – more room to pass, shoot, and stickhandle — but the individual battles waged by the Kings’ players are pretty compelling.
Another reason the Kings have such strong Corsi and Fenwick numbers is the expediency with which their defense can transition from the defensive zone. Jake Muzzin and Slava Voynov are young, strong skating defensemen with very good offensive capabilities. But Doughty is the gem. He is an elite decision-maker, and despite a broad frame he can slice through a defense. His passing is excellent, and he has a bomb of a shot from the point. That triumvirate is always pushing the pace, and once the puck is hemmed in the zone, a whirring, spread the ice, implacable barrage of shots is unleashed.
When the Kings’ full complement is healthy, they can attack up the middle with their size and speed, or on the outside. Their defense is a mix of burly defensive defensemen and top-flight puck-movers, and their forwards provide good backpressure and sturdy gap control. But with goalie Jonathan Quick hurt, making the playoffs becomes more difficult. Additionally, the Kings are struggling to score of late. If Ben Scrivens can maintain the status quo while Quick is out, and the Kings can scrape by with enough offense and defense to make the playoffs, look out.
(IH tangent: Do not forget how close the Kings were to reaching the Cup finals again last year. They made it to the Western Conference finals and lost to the Blackhawks in an absolute bloodbath that was more hotly contested than the five game series tally would suggest. Three Blackhawks victories were decided by one goal, and the Chicago Game 2 victory was decided by a close margin of 4-2. Game 5 was won in double overtime on Patrick Kane’s highlight goal. Ultimately, the Blackhawks were a bad matchup for the Kings, but think about how close Chicago was to not even being there! Before they met up with the Kings in the Western Conference finals, they had to come back from a 3-1 series deficit versus the Red Wings in the Western Conference semifinals and won Game 7 in overtime. If the Red Wings win that semifinal series, do they beat the Kings? Given the Western Conference’s superiority of the East, it seems safe saying that the Western finalist in this alternate universe would have had at least a coin toss chance of beating the Bruins, if not a better chance. The Kings almost repeated. Which makes sense, because this team is absolutely stacked; they just kind of tread water during the regular season. Jonathan Quick was ridiculous again in the 2013 postseason. Do not count this team out for a second. If they make the postseason, they will be an insanely tough out.)
Vancouver Canucks: 12-9-4
The Canucks’ window is closing. As hyperbolic as that sounds, it is kind of true. Vancouver’s best players are 33, and while the Sedin twins are still playing great hockey, how much longer they can lead a contending team is in doubt. Daniel and Henrik have aged fantastically, and still play intuitively on and off the puck, understanding where they need to be two to three second before the play unfolds. They carry the puck comfortably, shoot convincingly, and always find the pass that opens up the scoring chance. But the rest of the forwards, aside from the capricious Ryan Kesler, are very meh. But they got Torts, and that helps a lot.
With new bench boss John Tortorella, this Canucks squad looks comfortable in its roles. That sounds funny because Vancouver had lost their last five before whipping the Blue Jackets on Friday, but there are encouraging signs. The Canucks are top six in the NHL in Corsi and Fenwick for percentages. For the most part, Tortorella is commanding discipline from his players in their assignments, playing well at even strength, and they have a PDO that will gravitate towards the mean.
Additionally, Chris Higgins is doing a splendid Ryan Callahan impression, and as ESPN Insider Frank Provenzano noted last week, Higgins has the biggest impact in actual shots on goal relative to his teammates when he is on the ice. Higgins has just had really bad luck, but that should improve.
A Tortorella transition acquires some acclimation – hello zone coverage! – but schematically things look fine. The big issues are whether the Canucks have enough secondary scoring, or even primary scoring, beyond the Sedins. Kesler is the protypical power forward, his acceleration to the puck has looked impressive, and he has stayed healthy — which is never a given for him. Still, after those three, the dropoff has been huge. Alexander Edler and Jason Garrison have heavy slapshots from the point, but the Canucks’ fourth leading scorer is a player who was signed to be their 13th forward! Mike Santorelli, on a two-way deal, is making $550,000 this year.
David Booth has been the Canucks’ forward who has struggled the most. Pegged as a top-six forward, Booth was sent to the AHL for a conditioning assignment earlier this season. Recently, he was recalled but has been made a healthy scratch. Booth has bumped heads with Tortorella, and with a cap hit of $4.25 million, it has been a costly squabble. If this team is going to make a playoff run, it will need production from a healthy Alex Burrows and Jannik Hansen to supplement the Sedins and Kessler.
The Canucks are a good, but not great team, with a strong defensive corps, awesome penalty kill (number one in the NHL currently), and good goaltending. With Tortorella at the helm, all players seem to understand their roles. But in the brutally tough Western Conference, that may not be enough.
Calgary Flames: 8-11-4
The Flames are playing hard, and coach Bob Hartley deserves a ton of credit for getting the most out of a team that is short on above-replaceable talent. Sean Monahan has been awesome, and projects to be a possible first-line center down the road. Jiri Hudler has been very good, and has been the linchpin for an offense that is scoring at a very respectable 2.7 goals-per-game rate. Mike Cammalleri could be a possible trade piece at the deadline, but he has been a steady goal scorer when he has been on the ice. Mark Giordano is a very good defenseman who is a lock for IH’s “Three Players Who Are Better Than You Think” column when he comes back from injury. And Dennis Wideman, Curtis Glencross, Matt Stajan and Lee Stempniak have all been fine.
But it hard to beat around the obvious – the Flames have won three of their last ten games. Their goaltending is a gigantic question mark, and their defense is paper-thin. Their goals against is 30th and they are 26th on the penalty kill. Their Corsi for percentage is 27th, but their Fenwick for percentage is 23rd, and neither of these signal that their current squad has entirely dispensable players. The Flames have a lot of holes to fill, and are making their first steps in a long rebuild. Monahan is a good start, and the top five pick they choose in June will be another important building block.
Edmonton Oilers: 7-15-2
A hot topic in the first 20 games of the NHL season has been “What is wrong with the Oilers?” And it is a fair question, because they have looked pretty awful. Edmonton has won three straight, but their wins have come against Calgary, Columbus, and Florida – all teams with seven or fewer wins.
Their defensive zone coverage is abominable (they are 28th in even-strength goals for/against). Their goaltending has been very bad (they are 29th in goals against). And their No. 1 draft picks have been only sufficient offensively (offense being the key word because those players treat defense like it is an anathema). Their Corsi and Fenwick for percentages stink (28th in both), which makes sense, because the Oilers’ scoring is accomplished on quick strikes or on the power play. Teams can dominate puck possession against the Oilers because they do not play with any physicality and they are sluggish on their defensive assignments.
Still, patience with the Oilers is crucial. The fans have been very patient, so asking for even more is a hard sell, but dealing a past No. 1 pick or future draft pick in a panic move is not the answer. Ultimately, the Oilers still have a collection of extremely talented players who are barely over — or are still under — the U.S. drinking age. And since they are terrible again this year, they should be collecting another highly talented player in the 2014 Draft (assuming they do not deal their first round pick).
The Oilers are not the Avalanche. Early impressions are that Colorado may have the better future stars, but Edmonton’s Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, Jordan Eberle, Justin Schultz, and soon-to-be NHLer Darnell Nurse are no schlubs. They will all be quality NHL players. Firing their coach is not the answer, and their PDO is low enough that (with maybe the addition of Ilya Bryzgalov and some better puck luck) they could start stringing together some win streaks. Dallas Eakins is a young, first-year NHL head coach. Eakins demands accountability, and Edmonton has had enough overhaul and turmoil to last a few decades in the last several years. With stability, and some more patience, the rebuild will bear fruit down the road.
