Who is more likely to make a Cup run: the Islanders or Lightning?
The argument for both of these teams revolves around similar strengths: excellent possession metrics, depth, and talented youth. The Islanders and Lightning can both formulate offense through speed and through the symbiotic relationship that exists between their forwards and defensemen. Both teams produce good even-strength play because they function as ensembles; theirs is a collaborative effort which requires each player knowing his role without the puck and being able to steal the scene when the puck is passed to him.
John Tavares and Steven Stamkos are former No. 1 picks who are the alpha dogs for the Islanders and Lightning, respectively. But what is so remarkable and central to each squad’s success is the robust production behind both players. Stamkos is not even leading Tampa Bay in scoring; the undrafted Tyler Johnson is. In fact, Johnson is leading the whole freaking NHL in points per 60 minutes at 5 on 5, with Nikita Kucherov in second. Ondrej Palat is in the top 20.
For the Islanders, linemate Kyle Okposo shares the points lead with Tavares. The 23-year-old Brock Nelson and 21-year-old Ryan Strome are tied for third with 27 points. The list of important contributors for both teams goes on, but what is important is that the Islanders’ and Bolts’ second, third, and fourth lines find success independently from their superstars. Both teams have forwards who are self-sufficient on offense and relentless on defense. And success for the non-Tavares and Stamkos lines has come against serious adversaries and opponents’ best players. Both teams’ coaches feel confident rolling out their four lines, regardless of matchup. Consistency on a shift-to-shift basis matters.
Defensively, Tampa Bay has an edge, albeit not a large one. The Bolts have a clear top defensive pair in Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman, and the contours of a Cup-worthy back end are perceptible in the Jason Garrison-Matt Carle-Radko Gudas-Andrej Sustr groupings as second- and third-pair rearguards.
The Islanders lack that clear-cut No. 1 defenseman, although Johnny Boychuk, Travis Hamonic, Nick Leddy, and Lubomir Visnovsky are proving to be a much more capable and versatile top four than many originally anticipated. New York has options with their third pair, and that’s a good thing. If former 12th overall pick Calvin de Haan proves to be the answer, his upside could raise the Islanders’ ceiling on their blue line. That said, if Sustr continues to develop and improve, the Bolts’ defensive group can reach a higher level too.
Finally, the goaltending is a draw. The gigantic Ben Bishop was outstanding for the Lightning last season, and this season he has been good enough. The Bolts are winning a lot, and Bishop has not hampered them. Of course, the dogged backchecking by Lightning forwards helps him face less rubber. Bishop will not contend for the Vezina this season, but with a .914 save percentage and a .919 career save percentage, he passes the threshold for being good enough to help win a Cup.
For New York, the undersized Jaroslav Halak has a strong .917 save percentage and has even recorded three shutouts this season. Halak’s career save percentage is .918, and he has postseason experience. He demonstrated the ability to steal games during the 2009-10 playoffs for Montreal, and many in the hockey world believe Bishop possesses that ability, too. The Lightning is second in the NHL in shots against, and New York is fourth. If both teams continue to defend the middle well and control possession, then both goaltenders should not be liabilities.
Ultimately, the Lightning has a slightly better chance to make a run because Hedman and Stralman are better than any Islanders defensemen, and while New York has great depth at forward, it does not match the embarrassment of riches Tampa Bay enjoys. The Bolts have so much depth that they can stash former top ten picks like Jonathan Drouin and Brett Connolly on the fourth line and then move them to the first line or first power-play unit.
Is this the season where Ryan Getzlaf finally wins the Hart Trophy?
It might be, and here is the thinking behind it happening. This season, the Anaheim Ducks are a contender for the Presidents’ Trophy (again) and Ryan Getzlaf is at the top of the leaderboard in points (again). But the difference between this season and last is that Getzlaf has played a chunk of it without Corey Perry. Perry has only played 24 games this season while Getzlaf has played 38, which means he has suited up for 14 games without Perry and yet the Ducks have kept winning.
And that success is in large part because of Getzlaf. Even with Ryan Kesler as the second pivot, Getzlaf logs heavy minutes and produces prolifically. (He is seventh in the NHL in points per 60 minutes at 5 on 5.) Getzlaf is a world-class passer who assumes the puck-handling duties for his line, and coach Bruce Boudreau can slot anyone in the lineup with Getzlaf and know that Anaheim’s top line will set the terms and generate multiple scoring chances each shift while limiting the opposing line’s chances. The Ducks center also logs a ton of minutes for a forward, ranking in the top ten in the NHL in time on ice per game among forwards.
Last season, Evgeni Malkin only played 60 games, and Sidney Crosby won the scoring race and the MVP. Sometimes when there are two elite players on a team and voters associate them together, they can split the vote. But with Perry’s absence, the spotlight has been on Getzlaf and his night-to-night brilliance.
Moreover, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman made this point in his argument for Getzlaf as his Hart Trophy choice last season: Getzlaf plays in the tougher conference than Crosby, and faces more difficult competition on a nightly basis. Getzlaf finished second in the voting last season, but this year Crosby’s absence from the lineup and slumping give Getzlaf the edge right now. Hart Trophy voters like to reward players who finish high in the points leader category, but are they going to award it to a player from a likely non-playoff team like the Flyers or Stars? Also, Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux could steal votes from each other.
Getzlaf has never won the Hart, but that seems poised to change this season, especially if the Ducks finish with the best record in the NHL.
Who has been the best bang-for-your-buck offseason addition?
Mike Ribeiro wins this in a landslide. This past summer, Ribeiro was bought out from the remaining three years of his contract by the penny-pinching Coyotes, with Arizona citing “behaviorial issues” as a factor in the decision. The marriage was a catastrophe, and Arizona was so determined to be purged of Ribeiro after signing him to a four-year, $22 million contract that they did so without having a capable center as a replacement at the time. A few days later, Arizona traded for Oilers center Sam Gagner, but the scarlet letter was visible on the 34-year-old Ribeiro. The league noticed. Ribeiro had become a persona non grata in the desert, one who played for three different teams over the last three seasons.
Finally, Nashville bought low and signed the playmaker to a one-year, $1.05 million contract. It was a brilliant gamble. Since coming to Nashville, Ribeiro has become the team’s No. 1 center and has helped shepherd one of the most productive lines in the NHL this season. With Filip Forsberg and James Neal flanking him as wingers, the Predators’ top line is the fifth most productive in hockey, per leftwinglock.com. Forsberg has become the favorite to win the Calder Trophy, and Neal, who needs a high-level distributing center, has been deadly when receiving Ribeiro’s feeds. Nashville has been one of the best even-strength teams as they lead the league in 5 on 5 Goals For/Against. Despite having a very low faceoff percentage, Ribeiro has managed to thrive in possession metrics, placing third on Nashville in Corsi.
The Predators’ defense has blossomed into one of the NHL’s top defensive groups, but under new head coach Peter Laviolette the forwards have more autonomy. Ribiero is someone who operates best when he is unfettered, and he has the head coach’s blessing to utilize his creativity and impressive puck skills. In that sense, the heavy emphasis on structure in Arizona probably made it a bad fit for Ribiero from the outset. But in Nashville, he has rediscovered his game, and is being rewarded for his play. He sees the most ice time among any forward on the team, and he is second in power-play time on ice only to superstar defenseman Shea Weber. Ribeiro also handles important puck-handling duties, and his ability to spot passing lanes before they open allows the high-level scorers on his wings to work off the puck.
What happens after this season when Ribeiro becomes a UFA, and for how many years Nashville would want to sign the veteran center, are up for debate. But in the present, he has dramatically sharpened the Predators’ offensive saber with his ability to create scoring chances off the rush and cycle, and for his distributing skills which complement his linemates’ elite finishing ability.
The Predators are a threat in the Western Conference and have played the old guard very evenly. This iteration is markedly different than the Predators who were built around Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, Martin Erat, and David Legwand. These guys are faster, more skilled, and can strike quickly. And that has everything to do with Nashville finding their top center on the cheap last summer.
