What is the state of the union in the nation’s capital? Every year the question is posed: Can the Washington Capitals reach the Stanley Cup? Despite showcasing one of the league’s most recognizable figures in Alex Ovechkin, the Caps are listed at 33/1 by Bovada – so count Vegas as a doubter.
Even though the Eastern Conference is wanting, it is an extremely difficult task even for the prohibitive favorites, Boston and Pittsburgh, to return to the conference finals. Maybe the better question to ask is: with some luck, can the Capitals make it to the conference final?
The 2014 Capitals have Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom playing at elite levels, with the former leading the NHL in goals and the latter ninth in the league in points. Together, they are dynamic and highly impactful, with Backstrom handling the duties on the offensive zone entry and being a wizard playmaker, and Ovechkin cutting, diving, and ducking into any open space he can find so he can rifle a shot. Both have great hands and puck skills, and are true difference-makers – which is why coach Adam Oates has mostly split them up recently.
When you have two superstar players, you should be great – look no further than the Penguins, right? But the Capitals are in the bottom third in the league in Corsi and Fenwick percentage during even strength with the score close, and the needle does not move when rejiggering the Fenwick and Corsi to include all situations.
The Capitals are 28th in shots against, and their penalty kill is 17th – an especially troubling statistic because Washington is one of the most penalized teams in the NHL. When you pull away the curtains, you see a club with an excellent power play – number one in the NHL — and not much else. There is some hope, and being patient may actually be their best strategy.
After Ovechkin and Backstrom, the rest of Washington’s top-six forwards consist of mix-and-matching Troy Brouwer, Mikhail Grabovski, Joel Ward, Marcus Johansson, Eric Fehr, and Brooks Laich. There are some interesting tools and strengths in that assemblage, with Grabovski being the best of the bunch.
Grabovski being the best is both a good and a bad thing. It is good because the Capitals’ general manager, George McPhee, found this No. 2 center in late August of the offseason as a replacement for the departed Mike Ribeiro. It is bad because it means the team’s third best forward was unwanted by the entire league until Washington signed him to a one-year, $3 million contract on August 23rd. This is some impressive value to unearth at the eleventh hour, but this fact might suggest the shakiness of the remaining primary forwards. (Contract extension talks between Grabovski and the Caps are underway.)
Troy Brouwer has looked fantastically ordinary at times this season; Brooks Laich is unexceptional – despite being tied for the third-highest-paid forward on the team – and Marcus Johansson has shown flashes, but is inconsistent. Ward is a decent contributor but, like the rest of the Caps’ forwards, his two-way effort is often lacking.
The Capitals clearly want to attack teams with their speed, but the issue is that they do not have all five skaters committed to stopping assaults on their end. Pittsburgh’s goal by Letang last night was a four-on-two rush that is emblematic of the disconnect between forwards and defense, something that continually plagues the Capitals.
Another example is from January fourth’s game against the Wild. Watch Suter’s third goal below, which starts at 57 seconds. Unfortunately, Ward’s missed shot and his annoyed, pouty reaction are somewhat cut off, but you can see the puck just misses the net and the momentum of his shot is pushing it up the boards towards the blue line. Here is the important part: the Caps are losing 4-3 in the third period, but are on a power play. Three of the Caps’ forwards are deep in the offensive zone, but Ward, who is in the high slot, makes no effort to get the puck back!
The lack of any pressure whatsoever allows for a double defensemen, odd-man rush. Ward’s sluggishness costs them the game as this two-on-one leads to Suter’s final goal and makes the game 5-3 in the Wild’s favor. This is unacceptable for a team that views itself as an Eastern Conference contender.
Here is where it is important to bring up two names: Martin Erat and Mathieu Perreault. At last season’s trade deadline, the Capitals traded blue-chip prospect Filip Forsberg to Nashville for Predators’ forwards Martin Erat and Michael Latta. And just before the season started, the Capitals traded Perreault, who had struggled with steady play, to the Anaheim Ducks — whose coach is former Capitals bench boss Bruce Boudreau — for John Mitchell and a fourth-round pick in the 2014 NHL Draft. (This is not the grossly underrated John Mitchell on the Avalanche – this is the other, less relevant one.)
Both trades have worked out very poorly for Washington. Erat has been in coach Oates’ doghouse and his minutes have been sparse or even nonexistent when he is made a healthy scratch. (True to his nature, Erat has demanded another trade.) Latta has been a middling player who contributes little. Meanwhile, Forsberg is viewed by Nashville as a future high-end forward and was recently named MVP of the World Junior Championships tournament.
As for Perreault, he has 9 goals and 17 assists for the first-place-in-the-NHL Ducks, while Mitchell is currently playing for the Capitals’ AHL squad, the Hershey Bears.
Perreault and Forsberg are not dominant two-way players by any stretch, but when you have better players, you generally possess the puck more, and when you have the puck more, the other team cannot score.
After two very bad trades, maybe retooling the team through trades is not a good game plan for Washington – at least with McPhee as their GM. So what can they do with a weak top six that is being filled with players who are better suited for bottom-six roles? Jason Chimera is the perfect energy third-line player for the Capitals, and that is why it should be frightening for them that the difference between him and the rest of the players who tend to comprise the top six, excluding Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Grabovski, is negligible.
As mentioned, patience may be the best antidote, and you can look to the St. Louis Blues for an example. The Blues developed a very good team with drafting and developing but, like the Capitals, have not been able to find any forward traction in the playoffs because they previously have not had enough difference-makers in their top six. Like Washington, they needed that little extra oomph – the kind that can bolster their even-strength play.
The maturation and development of Jaden Schwartz and Vladimir Tarasenko has now given them that offensive firepower and important depth. And for Washington, despite the colossal blunder the Forsberg trade has been, they still hold two prospects who were recently ranked among the top 11 already-drafted prospects.
Evgeny Kuznetsov is a 21-year-old center who is playing in the KHL, and has been described by ESPN Insider’s Corey Pronman as a “good prospect with dynamic talent.” He is right behind the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Jonathan Drouin as the No. 2 best prospect drafted, but not in the NHL full-time. The other Capitals’ prospect is Andre Burakovsky, a left winger who is playing in the Ontario Hockey League and has shown tremendous offensive skills.
The cultivation of Burakovsky and Kuznetsov is paramount to the Capitals jumping a level, and Washington’s pedestrian numbers on five-on-five and all-situations’ puck possession figure to improve if these two reach their full potential.
A lot of concern is focused on the Capitals’ back end, which is fair because currently they are a team with only three established defensemen: John Carlson, Mike Green, and Karl Alzner. Dmitry Orlov has been effective in the 20 games he has played this season, but the 22-year-old, former second-round pick has less than 100 games of NHL experience, so it seems premature to draw conclusions just yet. Still, Orlov gets brutal zone starts and has fared well, and his quality of competition is above cupcake-level. The rest of the defensive corps is hold-your-breath worrisome though. John Erskine leaves a lot to be desired and does not move very well, and Steve Oleksy is undistinguished.
Yet, it is not off-base to question just how good Carlson, Green, and Alzner are. IH listed Carlson on its U.S. Sochi roster because of his skating and how he commands the power play with his heavy slap shot. Carlson understands the Caps’ defensive system and his big body allows him to overpower big, hulking forwards when he chooses to execute. (Note: IH did not include Paul Martin on its U.S. roster because it seemed unlikely he would be healthy since he broke his leg, but now it appears he will definitely play.)
Carlson’s negatives are concerning. He turns the puck over a lot, and will handle his defensive assignments in the Capitals’ own zone nonchalantly. Additionally, sometimes Carlson is so relaxed in his skating that he allows opponents to get inside position on him and achieve the scoring chance; he also will allow an enemy skater to hold onto the puck for a longer amount of time than is advisable.
Green is – well everyone should know what Green is at this point. He is an offensive defenseman. He always was offensively oriented, but his defensive skills have decreased markedly. Malkin shredded Green last night, so Green’s defensive shortcomings should be fresh in everyone’s mind. He can still be effective when activated from the blue line, but in doses. The reality is that Green is a shell of what he once was.
Alzner is a stay-at-home defenseman who is pretty decent at what he does. He does not contribute offensively, but he makes the least amount of mistakes from the back end and is not exploited as frequently as his counterparts.
The Capitals’ goaltending certainly makes for good fodder. The Capitals’ play-by-play announcer compared their goaltending situation to a pitching rotation, which is just as puzzling and worrisome as it sounds. Braden Holtby, who was the nominal starter heading into the season, is susceptible to bouts of inconsistency and will let in soft goals, especially since the Capitals can have defensive coverage that ranges from competent to horrendous.
The indelible mark of former Capitals coach Dale Hunter was how well the Capitals locked down when they had a lead, but that is not the case in 2014. When they are leading going into the third period they can win, but often goals are scored from both sides. This may be related to the Capitals’ core skaters playing really, really long shifts — exhaustion could be a big contributor to the defensive malaise. There should be significant anxiety about whether this team can make a stop when it needs to.
Recently, Philipp Grubauer has been in the goal the most. He has been good, with a sparkling .936 save percentage – better than Holtby and his .910 save percentage, and better than Michal Neuvirth and his .913 save percentage. Grubauer was called up in late November after Neuvirth, who was set to start against the Montreal Canadiens, stepped on a puck during pre-game warm-ups and injured himself. Grubauer was given his opportunity shortly after and has not relinquished the “starter” role since.
But Grubauer is a 22-year-old and untested in the postseason. So the looming question is can the Capitals’ goaltender tread water when/if the Capitals reach the playoffs?
This is a team that has concerns at forward, defense, and goaltending – so they have a lot in common with their Eastern Conference brethren. Fortunately, talent is situated in their prospect cupboard, so the sooner those players can jump in and start contributing the better. With the team in its current form, much of the roster is familiar. Fans will remember a lot of them from HBO’s 24/7 broadcasts of the Penguins and Capitals in 2011. Many of those players are still on the team, and they are who they are at this point; do not expect any dramatic internal improvements.
The Capitals have two quasi-trade deadlines this season, and at different points this season Erat, Neuvirth, and Orlov have all asked to be traded. This summer Laich or Erat will likely be a casualty of a compliance buyout that will free up Washington’s cap space during a rising-cap year. IH is not suggesting the Caps have made all their moves; they can still add some pieces. But it is evident that they are not just one piece, or even two pieces, away. At this juncture, the Capitals have 14 regulation and overtime wins (ROW), which puts them tied for 25th in the league. The Eastern top tier, Pittsburgh and Boston, have 30 and 28 respectively, good for second and third in the league.
The Capitals have weaknesses throughout their lineup, and an indifferent attitude towards defense might be systemic in some of their core players. The East is weak, which gives the Capitals a chance to reach the conference finals if given good health, favorable matchups, and some puck luck. But to advance beyond that, some extraordinary circumstances would need to occur.
