With the season starting tonight, IH finishes its preview of every team, including those not in the Western Conference Power Rankings. These are the bubble teams as well as the clubs that will end up vying for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 NHL Draft.
Colorado Avalanche:
Reasons for optimism:
The Nathan MacKinnon year-two hype is building to a crescendo, enough so that a person might worry he is headed for an underwhelming sophomore campaign. But he is not. Craig Custance polled fourteen NHL players to see who they would choose to build their franchise around. John Tavares worked out with MacKinnon over the summer and told Custance, “He’s certainly going to be one of the best players in the league, if not by the end of the season.” And then Custance added, “But he arrived in New York stronger than he finished last season, and players who worked out with him in the summer raved about his game.” According to Adrian Dater of The Denver Post, MacKinnon put on 12-13 pounds of muscle.
The Minnesota Wild played into the second round of the playoffs last season, almost upsetting the Chicago Blackhawks. They have a very good defensive group and strong defensive forwards. Yet, MacKinnon was arguably the most dominant forward they faced in the two series. He was faster than everyone, more explosive than everyone, and in the open ice he decimated the opposition. Minnesota had no counter for him when he was at full speed; their best hope was that he was moving so fast that he would lose control of the puck. His shot is powerful and he has excellent vision, so when he did maintain control, it resulted in a prime scoring chance. Oh, and his strength on the puck jumps off the screen. It seems insane to say this, but there is an outside shot that he will submit 80-90 points this season.
And the Avalanche have three other star forwards! Matt Duchene, Ryan O’Reilly, and Gabriel Landeskog are superb players who can score on any sequence and get to anywhere they want on the ice. Erik Johnson had a strong season in 2013-14, and Tyson Barrie is becoming a big-time impact defenseman.
Causes for concern:
If the Avalanche have six impact players of that caliber, why are they outside the playoff picture? Because outside of the four forwards named, the forward depth is very slim. Jarome Iginla was very good with David Krejci and Milan Lucic, but Colorado plays a much faster, more high-octane game. Iginla scored goals off the rush with Boston, but in his advanced years he is more of a threat off the cycle. Jamie McGinn is a contributor to the forward group, as is John Mitchell, but the rest of the bottom-six are bad.
The defense will be porous, too: Johnson and Barrie are good defensemen, but Brad Stuart, Jan Hejda, Nick Holden, and Ryan Wilson or Nate Guenin are a little too prominently involved. The Avalanche were 27th in Fenwick Close and they just lost their best two-way forward in Paul Stastny. The Plexiglass Principle augurs a regression toward the middle after the team made an incredible leap from the floor to the ceiling in the standings. Colorado had the fifth-best team save percentage and Semyon Varlamov had a career year, posting a personal best in save percentage (.927). The Avalanche’s overall depth is extremely thin and they rode an incredible streak of luck (PDO was 1022) that collected them the No. 2 seed in the stacked West. The Avalanche are coming back to earth. The question is where will they land.
Vancouver Canucks:
Reasons for optimism:
The John Tortorella-Vancouver Canucks’ relationship was never practicable, and some of the Canucks players provided exuberant quotes when Tortorella was deposed and a new coach installed. Bizarrely, the Canucks did finish with the eighth best Fenwick Close in the league last season, per Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com. But they finished eighth in 2011-12, and 12th in 2012-13, in Fenwick Close, which suggests that, before Tortorella arrived, they were already strong in controlling the puck.
When taking a closer look at the Corsi and Fenwick percentages for their forward lines and defensive pairings, the stats for various combinations suggest that their defensive group is adept at moving the puck, even when the Sedins – who drove possession significantly – are not on the ice. This corresponds with traditional hockey logic: A team who breaks out of the zone effectively has strong possession numbers, and Vancouver has had a fairly consistent defensive group over the past few seasons.
And now for the current season. Vancouver lost only one defenseman – Jason Garrison – who also happened to own the worst Corsi for percentage among the team’s defensemen last season (although he did have the second best Corsi in 2012-13, per behindthenet.ca). All of the other of the integral rearguards are returning, such as Chris Tanev, Kevin Bieksa, Dan Hamhuis, Alexander Edler, and Ryan Stanton. Luca Sbisa has similar puck-moving capability, and new GM Jim Benning’s bet on him as a reclamation project is a pretty crafty one; it is not unheard of for former first-round picks to find the right team and flourish.
The Sedins were unlucky last season, and a strong bounce back should come from the brothers. Finally, new acquisition Radim Vrbata poses an interesting question: Will he succeed outside of Phoenix/Arizona with two of the smartest and most skilled playmakers in hockey? Many of the hockey cognoscenti are betting on it, and frankly, it is a solid wager. If Vrbata stays with the Sedins, he should have a very solid season. Overall, the Sedins and a very good defensive group comprise a nice core, and the Canucks should be competitive.
Causes for concern:
Moving past the first line, Nick Bonino, Alexandre Burrows, Chris Higgins, Shawn Matthias, Linden Vey, Zach Kassian, Jannik Hansen, Brad Richardson, and Derrick Dorsett will likely constitute the remaining players in the forward group, and whether that supporting cast is enough to relieve pressure on the Sedins is vexing. Nick Bonino was very good as the Ducks’ center last season, but the 49 points he collected was 31 more than his previous best. Having breakout seasons to that degree generally do not happen around the age of 25. Bonino also scored 20 points on the power play with superstars Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. Hopefully for Vancouver, Bonino’s ascension is legitimate and he is an exception.
At 34, age is a concern for goaltender Ryan Miller, although he is still good enough to be a steady presence between the pipes. Miller memorably sputtered with St. Louis, but he was very good in Buffalo before that trade, and how he fares with Vancouver will be riveting drama. Miller has a reputation for being strong-willed. In a worst-case scenario, if his play goes sideways and backup Eddie Lack — who delivered a .912 save percentage in his rookie season — plays better, it could be a distracting and troubling opportunity cost considering the $6 million that was doled out to Miller.
Edmonton Oilers:
Reasons for optimism:
The hardest part for teams that want to rebuild is the stockpiling of high-end young talent — but for Edmonton, it is seeing this young talent congeal. The Oilers have a comical amount of top-of-the-draft players from being so dreadful during the last several years and, despite the despair that comes with losing so emphatically, some of these starry selections are starting to glisten.
Taylor Hall led all left wingers in points last season and was a dominant scorer at even strength. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins submitted a strong statistical season, and was able to stay health and notch a career high in goals and assists. Jordan Eberle is a scoring machine who delivered another big offensive season. Nail Yakupov had a notoriously uneven sophomore season, but the kid has visible talent. And then there is Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse, two recent draft picks with a ton of upside.
Also, Edmonton has done a stronger job providing a supporting cast. Mark Fayne is a good, stable defenseman who will help the Oilers’ defense by providing consistency and hockey sense. Offseason acquisition Teddy Purcell has some offensive facility and will boost the supplementary scoring. Edmonton has struggled mightily on defense, but they have goaltending depth in Ben Scrivens and Viktor Fasth.
Causes for concern:
Benoit Pouliot exploded last season in New York, but he is joining his sixth team in six seasons. Also, looking at the large sample size from the past several season suggests that 2013-14 could have been an outlier because he was in a great situation. Defenseman Nikita Nikitin is in danger of becoming one of those poor souls who makes the switch from the Eastern Conference to the Western Conference and is completely overmatched.
The second-line center spot remains a big concern, and if Edmonton keeps 2014 No. 3 overall pick Leon Draisaitl in that role it will be a massive challenge for the 18-year-old rookie.
Another issue is that when the Oilers netted three No. 1 draft picks in a row, they were certainly expecting a quicker team turnaround. One of the problems stem from the possibility that Nugent-Hopkins might be best suited for the No. 2 center role on a Cup-contending team, but he is forced to play No. 1 center for Edmonton. Yakupov is a big question mark as far as his NHL future, and obviously there are no complaints about Hall. The biggest problem is that, unlike with a top-heavy team like the Avalanche, Edmonton’s prolific scoring forwards care far less about defensive responsibilities.
The defense could still be bad – if Nikitin gets first-pair minutes he will be beguiled in a similar way that Andrew Ference was – although Nurse’s injection into the lineup could raise the defensive corps’ overall ceiling much like Hampus Lindholm did with Anaheim last season. Edmonton was the worst Western Conference team in Fenwick Close last season, per Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, and they still need to play in a brutally tough division and menacing conference.
Winnipeg Jets:
Reasons for optimism:
There are few teams in the NHL whose franchise trajectory is as difficult to gauge as Winnipeg’s. Since this is the “optimism” section, it should be stated that the positives with this team are very exciting.
Offensively, Blake Wheeler’s contract is beginning to look like a bargain. Dustin Byfuglien is polarizing, but his versatility makes him a net-positive and he will start the season on offense. Andrew Ladd and Bryan Little are impressive scorers who meshed very well with Wheeler, submitting a 52.5 Corsi percentage as a line last season, per progressivehockey.com. Evander Kane is a north-south player who has solid possession numbers and, when healthy and happy, is a prodigious scorer. There is some intrigue with Mark Scheifele, who played second-line center and produced well before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Mathieu Perreault and Michael Frolik are nice players in an ancillary role with the Jets’ forward group.
On the back end, Jacob Trouba is a possible No. 1 defenseman who will play a larger role this season with Byfuglien moving back to offense. Tobias Endstrom is a solid top-four defenseman. The remaining four — Zach Bogosian, Mark Stuart, Grant Clitsome, and Paul Postma (and maybe Josh Morrissey) — should be fine.
The roster is filled with some impressive talent, and Scheifele and Trouba are 21 and 20 years old, respectively, two entry-level players poised to make important contributions on the cheap. With a collection of talented veterans and young players, conceivably this team could be a fringe playoff team.
Causes for concern:
The biggest concern for the Jets is their ghastly goaltending situation. Ondrej Pavelec posted a nauseating .901 save percentage last season, easily the worst of any goalie with 35 or more starts. (He started 57 games.) But this was not just one bad season. Pavelec’s career save percentage is .906, but Winnipeg was still content to let him assume the starting role for another season.
Winnipeg was average or worse in most areas last season, with their best skill being their 10th ranked penalty kill. Pavelec’s presence in goal may doom the season before it starts, but this team needs to continue to play more disciplined under coach Paul Maurice and find some consistency. There is not a shortage of talent – although Winnipeg fans have heard that before — but the problem has been properly harnessing it and doing so on a consistent basis. If Pavelec could possibly submit a save percentage above .910, that would go a long way, too.
Arizona Coyotes:
Reasons for optimism:
Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a stud, and No. 1 defensemen are extremely difficult to acquire. Goaltender Mike Smith has not replicated his 2011-12 season when he finished fourth in the Vezina Trophy race and posted a .930 save percentage, but he is probably above the threshold for Arizona to win a Cup with if they support him with a really strong supporting cast. Few would argue that Smith’s ability to play the puck helps Phoenix on zone exits. Keith Yandle is a strong puck-moving defender, and Antoine Vermette is a good two-way center. Arizona specializes in reclamation projects, and Sam Gagner qualifies as the logical candidate.
Causes for concern:
The Coyotes specialize in making sneaky moves for players who complement their team and can function within their system, but it is very difficult to imagine how this squad could make the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference. Arizona likely sees itself as a team whose current strength is its defensive corps, but its blue line would not be among the top ten in the league in most power rankings, and would struggle to be in the top 15 in the league. If the team’s defense is closer to league average, this is a problem, especially because their offense is bad and possibly got much worse with the loss of Vrbata. Arizona is stuck in the middle, not quite a dreg but not frisky enough to sniff contending. To be fair, they have acquired some good prospect depth in recent seasons, but they lack the strong star nucleuses of many of their peers in the conference.
Calgary Flames:
Reasons for optimism:
Head coach Bob Hartley certainly does not see it this way, but Calgary has more reason for optimism than just about any team in the NHL that is not going to make the playoffs. There is so little talent on the Flames roster that they seem assured to claim one of the top draft picks in 2015. Calgary desperately needs a franchise-changing talent, and they are fielding a team so bad this season that they are well-positioned to snag one. However, even amid the current personnel, there are bright spots.
Jiri Hudler had a really nice season for Calgary last year, leading the team in points. Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie formed a strong first pair, and Giordano was even selected by ExtraSkater.com founder Darryl Metcalf as his Norris Trophy pick due to his incredible advanced statistics. Rookie Sean Monahan had a very promising first season, and Jonas Hiller offers some NHL-level stability in goal. Plus, Johnny Gaudreau, who scored two points per game last season with Boston College en route to the Hobey Baker, will make a few highlight-reel plays that everyone watches on YouTube.
Cause for concern:
The No. 4 overall selection from the 2014 NHL Draft, Sam Bennett, will likely need shoulder surgery. Aside from that, it is hard to pick apart this roster because they are very clearly acquiring talent through the draft. The cap sheet is surprisingly manageable, and bad contracts like David Jones $4 million and Ladislav Smid at $3.5 million should not affect the Flames by the time they are ready to contend for a playoff spot in the Western Conference.
