With the season starting tomorrow night, IH continues its preview of every team, including those not in the Eastern Conference Power Rankings. These are the bubble teams as well as the clubs that will end up vying for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 NHL Draft. Tomorrow, the Western Conference fringe playoff teams and cellar dwellers will be examined.
New York Islanders:
Reasons for optimism:
The likelihood of the New York Islanders becoming a playoff team greatly increased on Saturday. The Islanders traded for both Nick Leddy from the Chicago Blackhawks and Johnny Boychuk from the Boston Bruins, and in one day completely changed the outlook of their season. These were tremendous acquisitions by New York; prior to the trades, the team’s defensive group was a source of consternation for IH due to the lack of experience in the top four and absence of a true No. 1 defender.
When the Islanders rolled over their first-round draft rights for the 2015 pick in their trade with Buffalo for Thomas Vanek, they gave themselves the burden of having to finish with a winning season. If they don’t, the Sabres will increase their odds to land a generational player like Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel. Because of other offseason moves, it seemed unlikely that the Islanders would finish in the basement even before Saturday. But with that day’s headline acquisitions, they surge into the postseason conversation, especially with ominous signals coming from Columbus, Philadelphia, and Detroit.
Acquiring Jaroslav Halak and parting with incumbent Evgeni Nabokov is a significant improvement as New York now possesses a goaltender who can play at the NHL level and even steal the occasional game. Forward additions Mikhail Grabovski and Nikolai Kulemin will allow some of the incumbent players to slot into more manageable roles. Neither player will alter the franchise trajectory, but both are decent contributors who can provide meaningful minutes and two-way play.
And then there is the unknown, high-variance component of the young players. There is still a very small sample size to examine for Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome, Calvin de Haan, and Griffin Reinhart – the quartet has 161 games of total experience – but the early signs are good, with their skill sets presenting the possibility that at least one of them will be a high-end player.
John Tavares is pretty good too, still one of the best players in the league and beatified as the NHL’s top franchise player by New York Rangers defenseman Ryan McDonagh: “He makes everyone around him better. Very underrated skater. Big-time shot. He can play any situation.”
Kyle Okposo sparkled last season, especially when Tavares went down with his season-ending injury. Okposo finished eighth in points per 60 minutes at five on five, per behindthenet.ca. The oft-under-the-radar Frans Nielsen is a tremendous two-way player who will help the Islanders with his hockey sense and jack-of-all-trades skill set.
New York is percolating, and some of the disheartening team stats from last season, such as their 19th ranked Fenwick Close and 26th ranked 5 on 5 goals for/against, were amplified because of the Tavares injury. The question now is whether they have enough night-to-night consistency and team defense to thrust themselves into the playoffs.
Causes for concern:
NHL coaches are not fungible, but there is a high turnover rate from season to season, which reveals that a portion of the job is cajoling players to buy into the system and steward them into playing to their strengths — and do this on a consistent basis.
Some coaches undisputedly excel at this. Mike Babcock, Darryl Sutter, and Joel Quenneville are high-profile coaches who get the best out of their players and help them execute a smooth, cohesive system. But some coaches struggle in this area. Islanders head coach Jack Capuano falls into the latter category. Few teams look flatter, play as recklessly, and execute as erratically over 200-feet – New York performs inconsistently on a consistent basis.
Jack Capuano cannot be blamed for everything – the Charles Wang ownership was parsimonious and it affected personnel decisions – but a degree of accountability has to fall on the coaching staff. New York has chosen to modify its assistant coaching staff, and IH is not sure that is what will push this squad to properly channel their talents.
New York’s breakout was not very good last season, and few teams have a bigger separation between their forwards and defensemen over the course of the game — the five-man support is lacking. But backstopper Halak is going to help keep the Islanders alive in many more games than last season, and Leddy and Boychuk’s arrival will help ease what was going to be a massive undertaking for nascent defensemen De Haan and Reinhart. The Islanders could make the playoffs, but the coaching quotient is a big concern.
Toronto Maples Leafs:
Reasons for optimism:
The James van Riemsdyk-Tyler Bozak-Phil Kessel line scored the second most goals of any line in the NHL last season (although their Fenwick percentage was a meager 44.9, per progressivehockey.com), and that line returns to the fold. Jake Gardiner was Toronto’s best defenseman at advancing the puck last season and, with only 167 games under his belt, there is certainly room for him to grow. As Matthew Coller pointed out in his Summer Skate series for ESPN Insider, Gardiner was a very good possession defenseman who lifted up Morgan Rielly’s Corsi by 13 percentage points when the two were paired together. That’s an incredible swing. Hopefully, Rielly, a former fifth overall pick by Toronto, will improve his decision-making and ice-tilting acumen as he acquires more experience.
Last season, the Leafs were shelled by opponents in shots, and their chaotic breakouts and inverted team philosophy helped engender their 29th ranked Fenwick Close. Toronto’s goaltending kept them in a lot of games, but that kind of strain is unsustainable, which is what precipitated their epic collapse. The forwards and defensemen need to be more in concert in this upcoming campaign.
Changes in the front office (Kyle Dubas as assistant GM and stats guru Darryl Metcalf) have this team moving forward with a much more sophisticated strategy for how they want to play and what players they target in the future. Toronto still has some very bad contracts on their cap sheet and will struggle to make the playoffs this season, but the front-office shakeup could alter this franchise’s trajectory.
Causes for concern:
Defensive additions Stephane Robidas and Roman Polak may not move the needle enough to push Toronto into the playoffs. After the Kessel line, the forward talent is scant. Joffrey Lupul and Nazem Kadri are good offensive players, but their durability is questionable. Daniel Winnik and Mike Santorelli provide supporting effort and yeoman work, but the David Clarkson fit is still an area of concern and the team’s bottom-six centers are really bad.
The Maple Leafs were a top-heavy scoring team in 2013-14 – they had six forwards with 44 or more points and no other forwards with more than 20, per Dan Rosen of NHL.com. On top of that, they were an odious defensive team, and their puck-relinquishing habits were mocked on many media outlets. The Leafs have brought in some offensive and defensive help but are now capped out, and still not very good. They should be better defensively, but not good enough that this is a real advantage. Toronto seems destined to finish just outside the playoffs, and with their prospect cupboard wanting, that may be harmful long term.
Washington Capitals:
Reasons for optimism:
It was an eventful offseason with the Capitals hiring a new coach, a new GM, and adding to their blue line depth. Brooks Orpik is better than many of the third-pair defenders the Capitals were employing, and Matt Niskanen is a solid two-way defenseman who can lead the breakout and has a strong shot from the point. He can shoot it well enough that he demands fronting attention from the opposing wingers, and that should give the Washington skaters below the circles more room to maneuver. If Washington can move Mike Green for draft picks and better two-way players, a transaction people have been expecting, it would be a real coup for this team.
Forwards Alexander Ovechkin and Niklas Backstrom will predictably have phenomenal statistical seasons, so Washington will have that element of consistency from their scoring. But new head coach Barry Trotz will preach defensive responsibility, and hopefully some of that will resonate with a forward group that blithely ignored defensive responsibilities and could use some fresh faces.
Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson are intriguing young players with conspicuously different skill sets. Their development this season warrants attention because a lot of the veterans are ineffective and these two could grab some of their minutes.
Causes for concern:
Many of the problems from last season should remain exploitable weaknesses. The Capitals had a terrible Fenwick Close (25th) and 5 on 5 goals for/against (23rd), and coaching was not the reason for that. While their best strength was their power play, they routinely were shelled with shots at even strength. Green, Niskanen, Orpik, John Carlson, Karl Alzner, and Dmitry Orlov combine for a better defensive corps than the team had last season, but how much support the blue line will get from the forwards should be a point of emphasis when evaluating this squad. The forward personnel are too top-heavy and defensively incapable.
Ovehckin has become a media punching bag for his defensive ineptitude, with his indifference toward defense well documented. But he is also an incredible goal scorer, and the threat of his shot bends the opposing defense. Backstrom is an unbelievable passer who moves the puck very well. Those two are not the problem so much as the supporting forwards. Joel Ward is a good player, and Marcus Johansson is a strong passer. But the rest of the team lacks offensive punch and provides little defensive value.
As NHL.com Adam Vingan noted, Mikhail Grabovski’s departure means that the Caps do not have any returning forwards who have a Corsi percentage of at least 50 percent at 5-on-5. That’s a big problem. And their goaltending is an area that could be problematic, too. Braden Holtby is streaky, and if the Capitals are poor at even strength, and have questionable goaltending, they will finish at the bottom of the Metropolitan.
New Jersey Devils:
Reasons for optimism:
Goaltender Cory Schneider is a legitimate Vezina Trophy candidate this season. Andy Greene, the bulwark of the defense, finally got his much-deserved raise and has performed admirably as New Jersey’s No. 1 defenseman. The Devils are a sexy playoff/dark horse pick because they had the fifth best Fenwick Close from 2013-14, per Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, and allowed the fewest shots against per game last season. Defense wins after all, and the Devils have a defined skill at which they are much better than their opponents.
Furthermore, the Devils went 0 for 13 in shootouts last season, a ridiculously unlucky streak in a skills competition that amounts to a coin toss. That unlucky streak compounded with their 27th ranked PDO at five on five in close situations suggests that they could have — and maybe should have — made the playoffs. The Devils have an identity, and they will stick to it.
Causes for concern:
The Devils’ primary concerns from last season were their lack of scoring and Martin Brodeur’s continued presence in net. The latter is solved, but are Mike Cammalleri and the oft-injured, always-inconsistent Marty Havlat going to solve the scoring woes? A statistical conclusion often repeated in this space is that scoring forwards’ numbers drop after age 30. Havlat is 33 and Cammalleri is 32. Moreover, two of New Jersey’s primary players are 38 (Patrik Elias) and 42 (Jaromir Jagr). Both have appeared ageless, but 82 games is a grueling amount for two players with that much mileage. Expecting them to repeat last year’s production is a tall order.
Travis Zajac managed to stay healthy last season, played on the first line with Jagr, and received the second most power play time among forwards – yet he scored a meager 18 goals. Goal scoring is not Zajac’s forte, but his passing is overhyped and he really does not provide much offensive impact besides being very good on faceoffs and knowing how to advance the puck. His contract will look worse and worse every season going forward.
The Devils have a collection of scoring forwards on the back end of their careers (Jagr, Elias, Cammalleri, Havlat, Michael Ryder, and Damien Brunner), veteran defensive forwards who can chip in offense in a supporting role (Zajac, Dainius Zubrus, and Tuomo Ruutu), an awful free agent signing (Ryane Clowe) and a No. 2/3 center (Adam Henrique). Due to a lack of dynamic forwards, this team will continue to lack potency off the rush — and always playing off the cycle is exhausting. The Devils will try to claw like hell in the offensive zone and funnel shots toward the net while maintaining that suffocating defensive game.
But unlike in prior seasons, the defensive game is a question mark. Greene is a great player, but otherwise the Devils have two old defensemen (Marek Zidlicky, 37, and Bryce Salvador, 38) and three rearguards with less than 250 games in the NHL (Adam Larsson, Eric Gelinas, and Jon Merrill). Schneider should be dynamite in goal, which could keep them in most contests when factoring in their defensive M.O.; but there is a lot of age coupled with inexperience on the blue line.
It is easy to point at the Devils and say here is a team that fails to recognize the flashing sign saying REBUILD in all capital letters. Their lack of young talent distinguishes them from every other team in the NHL, and they would be much better off retaining their few pivotal incumbents and otherwise starting from scratch. Still, the lackluster competition of the Eastern Conference, with its prevalence of mediocre players, and some low-scoring wins could keep New Jersey in the playoff race.
New ownership has not brought new management, and GM Lou Lamoriello is trying to cobble together a winning product because, if the team sinks, it would likely mean his departure. Even with his hiring of Sunny Mehta as director of hockey analytics, do not expect an apostasy from Lamoriello; he has been rooted in one belief for nearly 30 seasons. Remember, the Mehta hiring was owner-mandated.
New Jersey is stuck in the mud with a GM trying to hold onto his job, snatching every aging forward in free agency possible, and hoping this provides enough forward traction to vault the team into the postseason. And if they miss the playoffs, the failed draft picks, passé style of play, and lack of development in any area other than goaltender will come to the forefront of the conversation.
Carolina Hurricanes:
Reasons for optimism:
It will be fascinating to see what ripple effect the change at general manager and coach will have on the current personnel. The previous management was wedded to the Staals despite mixed results of late; how Eric and Jordan factor into the plans of new GM Ron Francis and new head coach Bill Peter will be a storyline for the Hurricanes this season and in the future.
Carolina has missed the playoffs five seasons in a row, but with that futility has come some high-level prospects. Jeff Skinner is a tremendous scorer and former fifth overall pick Elias Lindholm is projected to get an opportunity in the top six this season. On defense, puck-moving defender Ryan Murphy will influence the top-four defensive group. Hopefully, for Carolina, he does so in a positive way. Defensemen Justin Faulk and Andrej Sekera had excellent performances in 2013-14 and are poised to repeat them, and if the top-six forwards can avoid the injury bug and find chemistry, they have the talent to affect games.
Causes for concern:
The Hurricanes do not have a pronounced strength; rather, they have a scattering of good-to-very-good players and some promising prospects. The goaltending situation will be as good as Anton Khudobin plays because Cam Ward is inconsistent and an injury risk. The Hurricanes have some big names at forward but, of late, their reputation has exceeded their two-way production. With the Jordan Staal injury, a thin team becomes thinner (Skinner is always an injury concern as well). The upshot is that the Hurricanes will likely finish at the bottom of the Eastern Conference and acquire a nice draft pick to furnish a prospect pipeline that miraculously has become bare aside from 2014 first-round selection Haydn Fleury.
Ottawa Senators:
Reasons for optimism:
The Ottawa Senators have one of the best defensemen in the NHL in former Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson. With Jason Spezza’s departure, Kyle Turris will get the No.-1-center minutes, and last season his line, with Bobby Ryan and Clarke MacArthur, was the eighth most productive goal-wise in the NHL, netting a combined 27. Turris already assumed the toughest defensive assignments in 2013-14, and with Spezza’s departure he becomes an even bigger part of the offense.
The Alex Chiasson acquisition was a nice addition, and Mike Zibanejad, the former sixth overall pick by Ottawa in the 2011 NHL draft, is on the final year of his entry-level contract. Hopefully, he submits a season that exhibits top-six forward potential. This team finished 12th in Fenwick Close last season, per Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com. In large part this was because of Karlsson and his 54.6 Corsi, but the rest of the defense can look adequate at times and definitely has potential to improve. Such development is predicated on a step forward from Cody Ceci and Jared Cowen.
Causes for concern:
The Senators will still be outside the playoff picture, potentially near the bottom of the standings. Finishing 27th in goals against and penalty minutes per game last season highlights some of their larger flaws, and it is hard to say why these would markedly improve. The goaltender situation is a concern, as Craig Anderson will begin the season as the starter with 23-year-old Robin Lehner in backup duties. After an incredible season in the shortened 2012-13 campaign, Anderson came back to earth in true Plexiglass Principle fashion, offering a not-very-good .911 save percentage last year. If he is mediocre this season, hopefully Ottawa will give Lehner an extended look.
Overall, this team has one great player, a few good players, and a lot of players who are inconsistent or do not have as much upside as Ottawa believes. Even in a best-case scenario, the Senators lack enough high-end players, and they do not have meaningful depth, either. The MacArthur and Ryan contracts are overpays, and this team needs more substantial difference-makers. The best thing for Ottawa would be to finish near the bottom of the league and acquire a blue-chip prospect in the loaded 2015 draft.
Florida Panthers:
Reasons for optimism:
The Panthers were horrendous in most statistical categories last season, enough so that they were able to collect the No. 1 overall pick and select defenseman Aaron Ekblad. But there was cause for worry, especially because Jonathan Huberdeau’s sophomore season was ugly, and Nick Bjugstad led Florida in points with 38 – the lowest total ever to lead an NHL team in an 82-game schedule, per NHL.com.
Still, the Eastern Conference is very weak, and it is not inconceivable that the Panthers could challenge for a playoff spot. Florida has a very talented No. 1-2 center combination with Alexander Barkov and Bjugstad, and the addition of versatile Jussi Jokinen will certainly help the Panthers on the wing. (He will not submit Pittsburgh Penguins’ numbers because he is without Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, and Chris Kunitz, but he is certainly an upgrade.) The Dave Bolland signing was an obvious overpay for a likely No. 3 center – but Bolland is a steady professional on a team lacking those in its bottom six.
Defensively, the Willie Mitchell signing was a nice veteran addition that should bolster Florida’s defensive aptitude and breakouts, if Mitchell stays healthy. Brian Campbell’s contract looked egregious when it was first signed, but he has given a strong contribution in his time with Florida, filling in as their No. 1 defenseman. Goaltender Roberto Luongo is good enough that there is some stability in net, and he should do fine in his first full season back in Florida with his former team.
But how well this team does rests on how well its young core performs. If Huberdeau, Barkov, Erik Gudbranson, Ekblad and Bjugstad perform at a high level, this team could make the playoffs. And a franchise tying its hopes around its highly talented draft picks is a way to jump from the cellar to the playoffs. Like Colorado last season, some luck and some breakout seasons would go a long way.
Causes for concern:
Florida needs to see their young players demonstrate high-end ability – or else. The new head coach, Gerard Gallant, has coached Huberdeau when he was playing for Saint John’s of the QMJHL, so his familiarity with the young player’s strengths and weaknesses should help. There were times when Barkov was awesome last season; he was in the Calder Trophy conversation for the first several months, and needs to build off of that strong rookie season. The Panthers’ rebuild timeline is dependent on how well their young forwards and defensemen play; if they struggle, Florida could find itself in the basement again.
Buffalo Sabres:
Reasons for optimism:
Buffalo fans may not be excited yet, but they will be when the young talent they have been accumulating in droves coalesces. After a rocky past few campaigns, this team has assembled a throng of top-level prospects, and if they are bad enough this season, they could fall into the incredible position of acquiring a potential future superstar like Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel.
The No. 1 or No. 2 picks are never guaranteed superstars, but since 2007 (arbitrary starting point!) Patrick Kane, John Tavares, Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, Nathan MacKinnon, and Gabriel Landeskog were drafted in the first or second spots. After those two, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and James van Riemsdyk make up the next tier of highly-acclaimed forwards. And Nugent-Hopkins still has room to jump into that first tier.
Basically, if the Sabres (or anyone else) flop badly this season, they will likely get to select a very special player. That kind of player is nearly impossible to grab in free agency, and would completely change the complexion of the franchise. And even without considering who they could grab in the 2015 Draft, ESPN Insider draftnik Corey Pronman ranked the Sabres the first-ranked organization for prospects, as they possess players like Zemgus Girgensons, Nikita Zadorov, Sam Reinhart, Mikhail Grigorenko, Hudson Fasching, and Joel Armia. Pronman could not even include Rasmus Ristolainen because he exceeded in the NHL regular-season games limit. Rebuilds are not a perfect science — as Edmonton has demonstrated — but the Sabres are also in the Eastern Conference. The Sabres ascension could be sooner than people are anticipating, but more likely, they want to stink for just one more season. Also, good work by Buffalo signing Matt Moulson for five seasons at an affordable contract. When the Sabres’ groundswell happens, Moulson will be a nice veteran contributor.
Causes for concern:
There is not a lot to be concerned about from a big-picture standpoint. A team wants to be a Cup contender, a fringe Cup contender who is rising, or in the basement accumulating assets. The middle ground is purgatory. And Buffalo is by no means in the middle ground; they should be bad this season.
The Tyler Ennis and Cody Hodgson contracts are iffy, and Brian Gionta is being paid not only for his on-ice production but also for professionalism and leadership that will help the younger players grow into impact, everyday NHLers. Drew Stafford and Chris Stewart will be UFAs at the end of the season, meaning those contracts are not a long-term concern. Goaltenders Michal Neuvirth and Jhonas Enroth are both viable options during this time of rebuilding, and it is conceivable that one of them could become the starter. GM Tim Murray is a smart guy and knows what is at stake this season. Being terrible in this upcoming campaign is the roadmap for Buffalo being a terrible pain to deal with a few seasons from now.
