Note: All statistics used are from ExtraSkater.com, NHL.com, and leftwinglock.com.
What Player’s Potential Is Most Exciting to Project?
Future Calder Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon has tremendous acceleration, is proficient at stickhandling, and is a top-notch skater. MacKinnon has 14 goals and 14 assists in 42 games, but it is not so much about his scoring as it is his comfort level. He is poised and confident, and when he slips into space he will call for the puck. He looks like an above-average professional – and he is 18 years old!
MacKinnon is second on the Avalanche to Matt Duchene in points per 60 minutes in all situations, and when looking at even strength points per 60 minutes, he only slides down to fourth on Colorado. It is hard to deny that he has been getting highly favorable zone starts and does not always oppose the best players, but when he does face top six players, he holds his own. MacKinnon succeeds because he explodes to the puck and can create separation on the counter attack and offensive rush. He is not afraid to go into the dirty areas, and in a few years he is going to be a sensational forward.
Why Aren’t the Wild Better?
The Wild are tied with the Phoenix Coyotes for the final wild card spot, except the ‘Yotes have three games in hand on Minny, so the gap is bigger than it appears. The Wild shelled out big money for free agents Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, so why are they not better?
The answer is because the Wild need their youth to synthesize into important top six and secondary pieces and that has not happened yet. The best example of this is forward Charlie Coyle. The Wild treat Coyle like he is one of their premier forwards. The team’s third most-used forward line combination is Parise, Mikko Koivu, and Coyle.
Those are the Wild’s two best forwards playing with Coyle, and through sheltered zone starts, coach Mike Yeo is trying to give him and his linemates every chance to succeed. While Coyle has shown some impressive skill, and looks promising, his macro stats have been underwhelming – four goals and eight assists to date.
When Parise and Suter signed, Minnesota’s young prospects were in their nascence, and the upside was tantalizing. We can give you top money and you can watch the flowers bloom. In fairness, that has been partially true.
Defenseman Jonas Brodin is the real deal, but how high the ceiling is for players like Mikael Granlund, Jason Zucker, and Coyle is more nebulous. Without the team’s blue-chippers playing like capable top-six forwards, the onus falls on Koivu, Parise, and Jason Pominville to shoulder the heavy offensive workload. A player like Matt Cooke, a very good energy forward and instigator, is called upon to buttress the scoring when Parise or any of the trio misses games.
Suter has been getting himself involved more in the offense of late, but this team needs its young talent to come through. Until that happens, the Wild will be a bottom-of-the-barrel scoring outfit – they are 28th in the NHL in goals per game.
Can Montreal Contend for a Stanley Cup?
On the surface, the Canadiens do not feel like a Stanley Cup candidate. IH is admittedly bullish on Brendan Gallagher’s potential, but how do the rest of the Canadiens fare? The team is small, and captain Brian Gionta was most notable for being the active goal leader among American players until Erik Cole of the Dallas Stars passed him last night (Cole has 239, Gionta 238, Parise 227).
The most productive combination for the Canadiens this season has been the Max Pacioretty-David Desharnais-Brendan Gallagher line. This triumvirate melds important qualities for any good scoring line: shooting, passing, speed, banging bodies, and a knack for going into the dirty areas.
But it also accomplishes something else — a more equal split in the lineup of talent. The best teams have depth among their forwards; for example, Patrick Kane spends most of his time these days playing with Kris Versteeg and Michal Handzus. Habs’ coach Michel Therrien has employed Brian Gionta-Tomas-Plekanec-Daniel Briere as his second line and Rene Bourque-Alex Galchenyuk-Lars Eller as his third line, and that translates to three very solid lines. (Gionta and Plekanec are a certain pairing, but it is not uncommon for Galchenyuk or Bourque to jump in there with those guys as well.)
The Canadiens are 5-3-2 in their last ten games and are one of four teams in the Eastern Conference that have a goal differential that is positive. They are small, but they are skilled and work hard. They also have the reigning Norris Trophy winner on their back end (P.K. Subban) and Team Canada’s starting goaltender (Carey Price) in their net. When you add that to a top-ten power play, it helps make up for their deficiencies — deficiencies such as being in the bottom-third in Corsi, Fenwick, and goals per game. The Canadiens are 18th in shots allowed per game (the porous Islanders are one spot behind them!), but they are fourth in goals against because Price has been awesome.
So, will it last? Has Montreal just been lucky? Yes, but not dramatically. Their PDO is 100.9 at even strength in close games, which is right around where it should be (100 is the mean). And in all situations, they are at 101.3, which is a little high and will likely regress.
Beyond the statistics, there is reason to believe the Habs could make a Cup run. The reality is, the Eastern Conference is not that good, and having Subban along with a strong top nine and very good goaltender may be enough. Making the Cup involves skill and luck, but it also involves health. Can Andrei Markov stay healthy? Can Pacioretty? And this is not health-related, but what if Price’s play dips? Can Montreal withstand that?
Also, do not forget playoff matchups, because they matter too. The Canadiens look to be a lock for the postseason, and avoiding Pittsburgh and Boston as best possible would be a major help. In the postseason, crazy things happen. In 2012, the New Jersey Devils advanced to the Cup after being down 3-2 in their first-round series to the Florida Panthers. And they did so without facing the Penguins or Bruins because both teams lost in upsets in the quarterfinals.
The Canadiens may want to add another big forward at the trading deadline (Jaromir Jagr possibly?), because the East is wide open. With strong goaltending, timely goals, favorable matchups, and some luck with health and puck bounces – the Canadiens could reach the Cup this year.
Whose Reemergence to Prominence Is Sorta Flying Under the Radar?
The answer is Jeff Skinner, who has risen from the shadows of Carolina into a Patrick Sharp-ish sniper. While not as versatile and multidimensional as Sharp, the 21-year-old Skinner knows which spaces to dive into in order to use his blistering shot to notch one past the opposing goaltender.
Skinner has great hands, and his ability to stickhandle and catch passes is impressive – as is his resolve. Skinner has suffered multiple concussions since entering the NHL, yet he plays unafraid. He digs for pucks, and his pursuit of the puck in the offensive zone consistently generates scoring chances.
Just named NHL first star of the week, Skinner has eight goals and four assists in his last seven games. Sharp gets goals in bunches, and so does Skinner, who in early December had a three-point night against the Capitals on 12/3, and a hat trick against the Predators on 12/5. Skinner is fast and has a natural scoring touch. He always seems to be around the puck, and staggers himself far enough away on the rush without the puck so that he can catch the rebound bounce-out chance.
Skinner does get the white-glove treatment – extremely favorable zone starts and piddling quality of competition – but the kid is a player. And snipers are invaluable in this league. Now he just needs to polish the other parts of his game.
What Player Is Sneaky Good Right Now?
Reilly Smith and Dwight King tie for this. The former was the valued prospect shipped to Boston as part of the Tyler Seguin trade. While Seguin has fit in perfectly in Dallas alongside left wing stud Jamie Benn, and Rich Peverley has slotted in nicely in Dallas’ top nine, the Bruins’ main prize, Loui Eriksson, has been oft-injured and is still adjusting to his new home. Fortunately, that disappointment has been slightly lessened because of how good Smith has been. Smith, the former Miami RedHawk, is in the top 25 in the NHL in Corsi for percentage and top 40 in Corsi for percentage relative. His Fenwick for and Fenwick for relative are both in the top 40 as well.
Smith excels at keeping his game simple. Smith will line himself up near post and deflect a shot when the puck is cycling up top, or gravitate towards the slot when the puck is beneath the goal line so that he can receive a pass and one-touch it to a cutting linemate. He plays intelligently, and he plays hard on the puck. He does not look that fast, but is fast enough – and apparently that memo did not get out to Calgary when the two clubs played in December.
This winger can handle the tough assignments, and raise his level of play when paired with better teammates. Smith’s 15 goals and 17 assists are indicative of how good he has been for Boston — and he plays a very Bruins-y game. He has playmaking acumen and good hockey instincts, able to get the puck to teammates with an array of passing, ranging from area passes, tape-to-tape, indirect, saucer, and through the seam. He can play with and without the puck while giving equal consideration to his defensive duties.
Smith had a humorous quote earlier this season about how playing with Patrice Bergeron is great because, when Smith loses the puck, Bergeron gets it back, but Smith has some of that takeaway-thieving in his game as well. With Eriksson returning soon, Smith will be reshuffled in the lineup, but he can handle it. He gives the Bruins added depth and, at 22, has some upside still to reach.
Dwight King is built like a defensive end, and skates like one, too – no one would mistakenly call King a smooth skater. But his Corsi and Fenwick are fantastic. His quality of competition is high end, and his zone starts are tough; yet, he is fantastically effective. So what gives? King is a funny sight because he lumbers, but he has surprisingly soft hands.
He plays a game that, like Smith, is very conducive to success with his team. King employs power on the forecheck, a penchant for driving hard to the net, and good vision. He understands what his assignments are on the cycle, and works well within the confines of Darryl Sutter’s modus operandi.
What Is the Craziest New Jersey Devils’ Statistic?
The Devils are well known to have trouble scoring. Their 6.6 team shooting percentage on five-on-five in close games puts them in a tie for 24th in the NHL with Calgary. But the Devils are last in another category: team save percentage. This is a team with one of the best goaltenders to ever play the game, the same team that traded a top ten pick in the 2013 NHL draft for a promising goaltender – yet it has a 90.0 save percentage at even strength in close games.
What Is a Surprising Winnipeg Jets’ Statistic?
Blake Wheeler got named to the U.S. Olympic Team that will compete in Sochi. With the process of who was picked made public, this transparency shed light on how highly Wheeler is viewed in NHL circles. Tall and speedy, Wheeler presents an appetizing skillset. But weirdly, he may not be the best forward on his own team (which is especially surprising because the Jets are not very good).
Bryan Little and Blake Wheeler are neck-and-neck in points per 60 minutes and quality of competition. Wheeler has the higher point rate, but Little has the slightly tougher quality of competition and starts a significantly higher percentage in the defensive zone than Wheeler. In a vacuum, Little may not be better than Wheeler, but he definitely is comparable.
