Intelligent Hockey

This is Part II of an examination of the 2010 NHL Draft, which postulates what would happen if this draft were held today — knowing what we know now. The sample size for most of these players is extremely small, and probably too much emphasis is placed on this current season because so many of these skaters have taken such an enormous leap during this current campaign.

The primary reason Intelligent Hockey wanted to do this is because, in hindsight, 2010 was a legendary draft, stocked with players who are becoming superstars, very good players, and important complementary pieces. The honorable mention section at the end attests to how many good players could not be included, correctly or incorrectly.

In Part I, it is argued that Tyler Seguin is the most valuable commodity of all the 2010 NHL Draftees, with Taylor Hall coming in second. In both articles, how these players were ranked was based largely on the rules below, which are borrowed from Mel Kiper of ESPN. Seguin got the edge over Hall – despite both players having incredible conventional and advanced statistics – based on health, positional value, and a more polished two-way game.

The rules:

1. The order is based mainly on what players have accomplished but also considers what else they have left. Health matters.

2. The need of the team at the time is not considered. This is now purely “best player available.”

3. Positional value matters — so center is more important than a winger, for instance.

All advanced statistics used are from ExtraSkater.com

3. Florida Panthers: Ryan Johansen, C

2010 pick: Erik Gudbranson

Ryan Johansen is playing like a mad man right now. People were expecting good things, but now experts are projecting his upside to be like a Jamie Benn or Ryan Getzlaf. When you look at the advanced statistics, his quality of competition is brutal and his deployment is very difficult; yet, he is pushing the puck in the right direction very effectively. (The Columbus Blue Jackets have a sturdy shots-for differential in close contests when Johansen is on the ice.)

Johansen’s boxcar statistics are unbelievably impressive as well. Only Seguin has more goals among the 2010 draftees. Johansen’s size, hands around the net, strength on the puck, and playmaking are top-notch. He could easily be switched with defenseman Cam Fowler in this listing, but he is even younger than Fowler, and forwards are also a little easier to project. Interestingly, Johansen is only four months older than Gabriel Landeskog, and boasts similar statistics and usage. (Landeskog is the 21-year-old captain of a Colorado Avalanche team positioned to grab the No. 1 seed in the loaded Western Conference — so this is very high praise.)

4. Columbus Blue Jackets: Cam Fowler, D

2010 pick: Ryan Johansen

Fowler’s advanced statistics are not as great as one might hope; his Relative Corsi and Relative Fenwick are in the red when the score is close. This is the first year where he has put all his gifts together, and there is danger in basing too much off of his recent success. Still, at 22, Fowler has the full-package of skills that a team could want in a defenseman.

As for those statistics, Defensemen Ryan Suter and Shea Weber are, like Fowler, in the negative at driving the puck when the score is close, but no one would doubt that those two are genuine defensive anchors. Like those two, Fowler could be a minute-crunching, nucleus-of-the-defense cog.

Moreover, since Fowler’s injury, the Ducks’ puck possession numbers have gone from serviceable to inadequate. The reasons are evident. Fowler is a very good skater as well as a strong decision-maker, and his work in the Ducks’ own zone when retrieving pucks galvanizes the transition game. Fowler has been a large reason why Anaheim is vying for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

Fowler has tough deployment and is matched against the toughest competition, and he handles these obligations admirably. He is the best defenseman in this re-draft, and with most of his peers breaking out this season, the question is whether a team would want to roll the dice with a burgeoning forward like Tarasenko, Schwartz or Granlund instead of selecting the United States’ brightest young star defenseman. But Tampa Bay and Los Angeles found their defensive fulcrums – Victor Hedman and Drew Doughty, respectively — at the top of NHL Drafts. With Fowler available, the temptation of that high-impact defenseman leading a team’s blue line is too great.

5. New York Islanders: Vladimir Tarasenko, RW

2010 pick: Nino Niederreiter

When Tarasenko was healthy this season he was absurdly good. His injury may have single-handedly sunk the Blues’ Cup chances. He is first on the Blues in Relative Corsi and Relative Fenwick in close games, and his points per 60 minutes are second on the team to Alexander Steen. Tarasenko is able to deftly get to the middle of the ice, whether that is from the corners of the ice beneath the goal – likely on a curl around the faceoff circle — or from some stickhandling ploy he used from the perimeter to work his way into the slot. Tarasenko and Schwartz are all-situations forwards who will terrorize opposing defenses with their offensive skills, and prevent opposing forwards from having serious puck possession time.

6. Tampa Bay Lightning: Jaden Schwartz, LW

2010 pick: Brett Connolly

Schwartz might not be the best player on the Blues at this moment, but he is a lot closer than most people realize. He is developing into a tremendous player, and if the Blues are going to make the Stanley Cup, he will need to be their key difference-maker. Schwartz drives play and fits in perfectly with the hockey analytics-friendly Blues. Despite being of smaller stature, Schwartz plays through contact in a Patrick Kane-ish way, and is able to circumvent punishing hits when he has the puck. Ten years ago, a 5’10”, 182-lb. player dominating the NHL at the age of 21 would seem unusual, but with the rule changes and ever-increasing speed in the NHL, the public seems accustomed to it.

With just a little bit of space, Schwartz can utilize his quick release to find the shooting lane and holes in a goaltenders’ blockade. He is a pragmatic player, and his shrewd understanding of his strengths is one component of what makes him so good. When he was healthy, Tarasenko got treated with white gloves in his deployment, but Schwartz faces tougher starts and slightly tougher competition. This season, he has taken tremendous strides in becoming a pivotal piece on a Cup-contending team, and he assumes a large share of the puck-handling duties because he has that on-a-string control.

7. Carolina Hurricanes: Jeff Skinner, LW

2010 pick: Jeff Skinner

Skinner is maybe the most intriguing player of the Draft because of his high variance on a game-to-game basis. Everyone knows he can score. His rookie season, he netted 31 goals and took home the Calder Trophy. His next two seasons were much more uneven as Skinner struggled with his defensive responsibilities. Moreover, he was plagued by injuries. But in 2014, Skinner has rebounded, at least from a statistical aspect.

Once again, the dangerous winger has potted 31 goals and tallied 21 assists, and his points per 60 minutes are easily the best on the Carolina Hurricanes. Yet, he still does not drive possession in spite of heavy protection in deployment and competition. And frankly, he is really not that type of player. While Skinner can definitely carry the puck and use a little dazzle to create room, at this juncture he seems less inclined to assume major puck-handling duties and try to achieve the zone entry. Instead, he likes to find the soft spot on the ice without the puck, and blast a shot when the puck reaches him.

Skinner is not yet 22, so this is a player who still is evolving; nevertheless, at his best, he may just be a very skilled scorer in this league. He may not have the high-impact puck-possession savvy of a Tarasenko or Brendan Gallagher, which is okay. It seems like, at the worst, he will be a very skilled, one-dimensional scorer. Skinner’s bouts of lassitude are concerning, but his overwhelming talent for manufacturing scoring chances makes him very valuable. If he can hone other aspects of his game, he could be a high-end winger in the Phil Kessel mold. His smaller size, coupled with his concussion issues, loom large, however.

8. Atlanta Thrashers (now Winnipeg Jets): Mikael Granlund, C

2010 pick: Alexander Burmistrov

The Wild have reconfigured their offensive strategy this season, and the fearsome potential of Mikael Granlund and the pace-setting speed of Charlie Coyle – who Minnesota acquired via trade — is a big reason why. Granlund’s finesse game is aesthetically pleasing, and his all-around game has really jumped since a strong showing in Sochi with his native country, Finland.

Like Skinner, Granlund has had multiple concussions, and whether he can stay healthy is a pressing concern going forward. With that said, unlike Skinner, Granlund will go into the dirty areas and battle. Granlund has the aptitude not just to score the game-tying goal, but also to protect the lead. Although Granlund is a more polished player than Skinner, he does not possess an ace skill like Skinner has; that is why the Hurricanes’ winger has a slight edge on the Wild center.

9. Minnesota Wild: Justin Faulk, D

2010 pick: Mikael Granlund

When Justin Faulk was included on the United States’ Olympic roster for Sochi, it came as a surprise to some in the hockey community and many outside of the NHL bubble. But Faulk’s skillset is attractive, and he has developed into an impressive player despite a floundering team.

Faulk plays a cerebral game, skates well, and likes to jump in on the rush. He also can quarterback the power play, and has a nice shot from the blue line. In his defensive zone, his first pass is typically on his teammate’s blade, but he does struggle sometimes because he is not assertive enough. A defenseman needs to protect the middle of the ice and fan his way out – or enemy forwards can get inside position on him.

Additionally, Faulk can turn the puck over in costly areas. He was forced into the de facto No. 1 defenseman spot for Carolina at an early age, and while he is a very good player, he has had to stomach some hiccups during his maturation. But, this is a success story, since he has developed into a very effective player. His Relative Corsi and Relative Fenwick are superb when the game is close, and he gets the toughest competition while being deployed considerately.

For a Cup-contending team, Faulk is not a No. 1 defenseman. However, he is a valuable No. 2/3 defenseman if he finds more consistency in his game-to-game, shift-to-shift play. If Carolina builds something substantial, or he leaves for greener pastures in the future, he could be an important defender on a championship team.

10. New York Rangers: Charlie Coyle, C

2010 pick: Dylan McIlrath

Coyle is an intuitive forward who reads the play well and is strong on the puck. His Relative Corsi and Relative Fenwick in close games are impressive, and in space he is a nifty playmaker with a decent shot. His destiny is likely a very good No. 2 center, and his Eastern Conference doppelgänger appears to be Derek Stepan for the New York Rangers.

11. Dallas Stars: Nick Bjugstad, C

2010 pick: Jack Campbell

This gigantic center has demonstrated some impressive upside this season, and his hands, scoring touch, and balance seem indicative of a bright future. To wit, Bjugstad has the highest points per 60 minutes of any player on the Panthers. Unfortunately, Florida is a very, very tough place to grow into a signature player. Jonathan Huberdeau’s struggles this season, and Erik Gudbranson’s absence from this list, are a reminder of that. This piece is somewhat grainy because it considers what a player has done, but also tries to evaluate that player in a vacuum against his peers, and in both contexts, Bjugstad looks like he will become a capable No. 2 center.

12. Anaheim Ducks: Brendan Gallagher, RW

2010 pick: Cam Fowler

A smallish winger, Gallagher has probably reached something close to his ceiling at this point. It feels safe to say there is a pretty accurate understanding of who he is: a pesky winger who tilts the ice and can chip in offense while drawing penalties. Although his offensive skills are not overwhelming, he does collect a surprising amount of scoring chances, even when he is being pummeled into the ice.

In many ways, Gallagher is a less talented, and far less diplomatic, version of Zach Parise. And like Parise, he probably does not receive enough credit for his 200-foot effort. Gallagher expends every ounce of energy for his team – like Parise – while maximizing his talent to the highest possible degree. While Gallagher may not reach another level as far as his value to the Habs, the season-to-season volatility of hockey could see him submit a career-high 50-55 point season in the future.

13. Phoenix Coyotes: Jon Merrill, D

2010 pick: Brandon Gormley

With only 50 games under his belt, Merrill has not had a long career. His fancy stats are not great, and he may have less offensive upside than originally projected. Yet, his poise and skating make him look like he belongs in the NHL, and Merrill earned some chances on the power play and penalty kill this season. Even at a relatively young age, his hockey instincts are obvious, and he generally tries to make the right play.

Radko Gudas is arguably more entrenched in the Tampa Bay Lightning back end, but at 22, Merrill is nearly two years younger. If Merrill reaches his ceiling, he could be a top-four defenseman in this league. Merrill has gotten a little overshadowed by the dynamic offensive ability of fellow Devils’ defenseman Eric Gelinas, but each player’s value to the Devils’ franchise is markedly different. Merrill’s strengths are in his all-around game. He seems set to be the third best defenseman in this draft, and positional value matters.

 14. St. Louis Blues: Tyler Toffoli, C

2010 pick: Jaden Schwartz

A player with a defined skill that sets him apart at the NHL level will carve out a long career in this league. Look no further than Michael Ryder and his goal scoring. Tyler Toffoli has that knack for procuring scoring chances and finding the net, and with a team like Los Angeles, Tofolli may be forced to develop a more versatile game if he wants to remain in the organization.

Honorable Mentions: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Radko Gudas, Riley Sheahan, Beau Bennett, Brock Nelson, Emerson Etem, Jarred Tinordi, Nino Niederreiter, Jason Zucker, Devante Smith-Pelly, Max Reinhart, Tye McGinn, Dalton Prout, and Mark Stone