Looking back at the 2010 NHL Draft, the hockey community can begin to collectively agree it was an incredible year for acquiring talent. The 2003 NHL Draft is spoken of with deep reverence, but the 2010 Draft also has yielded some awe-inspiring players.
With Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, Ryan Johansen, Cam Fowler, Jeff Skinner, and Justin Faulk as the headliners, there is insane star power. Among them, they have made Olympic teams, won a Stanley Cup, and are high-impact players. And the second tier of this same draft looks to be stacked as well, with guys like Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko, Charlie Coyle, Mikael Granlund, Brendan Gallagher, and Nick Bjugstad emerging this year as burgeoning stars or bona fide top-six forwards.
Another parallel between the two drafts is that, in 2003, the Ducks unearthed Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry in the first round just like, in 2010, the St. Louis Blues may have found their franchise cornerstones in Schwartz and Tarasenko. And, in both of these drafts, there was a third tier filled with guys who have shown great skill and are having varying degrees of success, but are still establishing their place as regular NHLers: Radko Gudas, Nino Niederreiter, Riley Sheahan, Tyler Toffoli, Jon Merrill, Brock Nelson, Beau Bennett, Devante Smith-Pelly, Dalton Prout, Emerson Etem, Mark Pysyk, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Jarred Tinordi, Jason Zucker, and Erik Gudbranson.
If the NHL Draft for these 2010 players were held today, how would teams pick knowing what we know now? This discussion is broken into two parts because the Taylor Hall vs. Tyler Seguin argument needs to be expansive. The NHL is in a great place with Nathan MacKinnon singlehandedly expanding the universe, but these two forwards’ leaps into superstardom should not be overlooked. Knowing what we know now, this is how Intelligent Hockey sees the draft unfolding if it were held today. The rules that follow are the ones devised by Mel Kiper when he did his 2008 NFL Re-Draft article.
The rules:
1. The order is based mainly on what players have accomplished but also considers what else they have left. Health matters.
2. The need of the team at the time is not considered. This is now purely “best player available.”
3. Positional value matters — so a center is more important than a winger, for instance.
1. Edmonton Oilers: Tyler Seguin, C
2010 pick: Taylor Hall
In the re-draft, Seguin has a little too much video-game dominance to not be number one. It is unfathomable to think that the best player from this loaded draft has been involved in not just one but TWO polarizing trades in his career, but it is true. The Dallas Stars ostensibly have one scoring line and some nice complementary players; still, they probably will make the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference, and this is because of Seguin and Jamie Benn.
Seguin and Benn have carved up defenses this season. They are big, fast, and powerful, and also have incredible scoring ability. Seguin is the center of their line, and with his excellent health record, he gets the nod for the No. 1 player in this draft if the Oilers knew what we know now.
A good place to start to support this statement is to look at the NHL leaders in points per 60 minutes. Evgeni Malkin is first, Sidney Crosby is second, and Seguin is third. Including center Ryan Getzlaf, who is in fourth overall, Seguin is the youngest by at least four years. The next two centers among the points per 60 minutes leaders (at fifth and seventh) are Matt Duchene and John Tavares, who are both a year older than Seguin.
Had he stayed healthy, Steven Stamkos would likely be somewhere in this grouping, but even the dynamic center for the Lightning is two years older than Seguin. In fact, there is really no forward who is in the same realm of dominance at Seguin’s age (22) other than Taylor Hall, who is sixth in points per 60 minutes among the NHL leaders (and first among wingers). The incredible thing about Seguin is that he might still reach another level. He is just hitting his peak, and it seems plausible he could lead the NHL in scoring next season.
Seguin’s acceleration without the puck is ridiculous. He opens up time and space because he looks like a freight train going through the neutral zone. He also can fire it from just about anywhere. His passing is an underrated aspect of his game, and he has good vision. His size, speed, and puck skills are everything you could want in a superstar forward.
Seguin’s Relative Corsi and Relative Fenwick are great, and he tilts the ice against other teams’ best players. Coach Lindy Ruff employs Seguin in a sniper role on faceoff plays in the offensive zone. The beauty of this is that, when Dallas wins a draw, the puck usually gets to Seguin before the defense does, causing much stomach-churning for opposing coaches, as Ovechkin has done for many years.
On the defensive side of the puck, Seguin is no Patrice Bergeron or Anze Kopitar, but he is more sound than Hall. Playing two-way hockey is largely effort-driven, and to become a respectable defensive player, a skater needs to try to apply equal effort on back pressure and operating within the coverage schemes.
Additionally, Seguin’s defensive help is at a more fundamental level where he will retreat into space and find room for a passing lane so that Dallas can exit the zone for the transition successfully. When Hall flies the zone, he punts on that chance for the Oilers. Seguin also is less susceptible than Hall to phlegmatic puck-watching.
2. Boston Bruins: Taylor Hall, LW
2010 pick: Tyler Seguin
Note: Boston received Toronto’s 2010 first and second round picks, and a 2011 first round pick for Phil Kessel.
Taylor Hall is a great player. His 77 points put him at seventh in the league, in a tie with Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom. That he has been so successful – despite being on a woeful team — is a testament to his incredible talent.
Hall has tons of speed, very good puck-handling skills, and can manufacture scoring chances. His shot is a plus, and his offensive hockey sense allows him to get to the prime spots on the ice before the opposition. In space, he can get creative when there is not an apparent play to be made. His 50 assists put him at eighth among the assist leaders (and ahead of Seguin’s 46) and his talent at distribution could evolve into his ace skill, as it has for Joe Thornton, Ryan Getzlaf, and Claude Giroux.
Overall, Hall’s offensive game is damn good. He is even in the black for Relative Corsi and Relative Fenwick, which is no small feat for someone on a team that is miserable at puck possession.
But Hall’s defense can be generously described as a work in progress. Too often he plays in the defensive zone like he has one foot out the door — wanting to jump in on the rush before the puck has fully changed into Edmonton’s possession. His lack of commitment to his team’s defense in their own end has been crippling for Edmonton this season.
Still, Hall is 22 years old and matched against the toughest quality of competition on the Oilers. He does have surges of good effort, but it is evident that offense is a much bigger priority for him. He needs to dedicate equal effort to the defensive zone, and there is a lot of room to grow. (This is why Hall gets excluded from lead-protecting situations like the Oilers encountered against Anaheim on Sunday when they had a faceoff in their own zone with less than a minute left.)
Overall, if Hall can evolve from a minus on defense to a net zero, then he will reach his full potential. Wingers have different responsibilities than centers and — depending on the coach and the team’s defensive scheme — have varying responsibilities and free will in their own zone (some teams collapse and some play man-to-man). But there are basic principles to playing a 200-foot game that transcend coaching strategies. What Marian Hossa does as a winger on defense is probably the best model, and exemplifies how to disrupt opponent’s offense tempo and provide good puck support in his team’s own zone.
Injury issues are also a concern for Hall – this is the first NHL season he has played over 70 games – but if he can stay healthy, Edmonton will have one of the premier wingers in the NHL for the next decade. Nevertheless, Seguin could eventually become the best forward in the NHL.
2010 NHL Re-Draft Part II is coming Friday.
